The Linn Group


Tuesday Morning Soybean Update

Nate Smith - 03/25/08 7:54am


Soybeans closed limit up (50 cents) in both the May and July contract on Monday with new crop November up 49 cents. Traders say the soy complex recovery was due after last weeks sell-off from record highs. Traders say grains in general are beginning to find some bullish support from spring weather. Fear of planting delays due to excessive wet weather in the southern plains has been supportive. Volume on Monday was moderate Soybeans traded 132,793 Soybean oil traded 60,015 and Meal 49,160. Funds bought an estimated 3,000 Soybeans, 2,999 Meal and 2,000 Oil.

Early opening calls are higher. Asian grain trade is sharply higher overnight as Meal, Oil and beans all traded higher and Malaysian Palm oil futures closed up 4.8%. traders say The market moved higher in the afternoon session after Indonesia raised its export taxes for palm oil. Analysts said demand for edible oils could be on the rise, led by Indian import duty cuts for crude palm oil to 20 percent from 45 percent. Brazil grain analyst Celeres estimates Soybean harvest at 46% complete vs. 51% last year and a five year average of 35%. The Argentine Farmer strike continues and traders say there has been 4 to 6 cargoes of Soybeans switched to the US due to the strike.

Early Opening Calls: Soybeans 35-45 cents higher, Meal $7.00 to 10.00 higher and oil .60 to $1.00 higher.

Top News -- Texas Soybean plantings were pegged at 6% complete vs the 4% same week year ago & just ahead of the 5 yr avg of 5% complete. -- Soyoil import duty under consideration for a reduction, acc. to unidentified senior Ag commerce official, acc. to reuters. Last week the Indian gov't cut the duty on palm oil imports to 20% from 45% in an effort to combat food price inflation. -- Celeres reported Soybean harvest at 46% complete in the latest week. That's behind last year's pace of 51% complete, but well ahead of the long term average of 35% complete. -- 62% of the Brazil Soybean crop has been forward sold, up just slightly from 61% seen last week, but ahead of the 50% pace seen last year, acc. to crop forecaster Celeres -- Base CPO export price raised by Indonesia to $1,196/mt from $988/mt, they also raised the refined palm olein base price to $1,303/mt vs $1,063/mt and are effective April 1. Base export prices allow the gov't a price floor to base export duties from. -- India inks deal for potash fertilizer from Russian supplier, traders say the contracted price was $625/mt, way up from last year's $270/mt. Analysts suggest this could set the tone for other large contracts with the likes of China & South American countries yet to complete their annual deals. -- CME Group announced it will offer electronically traded options on futures contracts in Corn, Soybeans, Soymeal, Soyoil, Wheat, Oats, & Rough Rice side by side during during day-time open outcry trading hours beginning April 14, 2008. -- CFTC industry roundtable scheduled for Apr 22 to discuss recent events concerning Agricultural markets. -- Dalian Soybean futures rose 122 yuan to 4,892 yuan/mt basis the Sept contract; Soymeal futures were higher across the board also; active Sept Soyoil futures rose 8 yuan to 10,892 yuan/mt ($1=7.05 yuan) -- Malaysian palm oil futures settled at $1,094.10/mt a rise of $50.00/mt in overnight trade along with higher Chinese vegoil futures & Chicago soyoil futures -- Globex Soybean Vol. 105,115; Pit Vol. 19,269; Open Interest Change: +2,520 -- Weather: 6-10 Day Forecast: Normal to Above Temps. Normal to Below Precip. The Corn Belt will see chances of showers or snow showers today into Friday. Saturday and Sunday look dry. Temps normal to below. -- Outside markets: Energy Complex +0.45 at $101.31; Gold & Silver: +11.1 at $929.5 & +0.385 at $17.504; US $ is slightly lower vs. Yen & lower vs. Euro

Cash Markets -- CIF Soybeans steady off 5 . Mar. +30 to +??, Apr. +23 to +25, May +26 to +33, June +20 to +28, July +23 to +25, Sept. +3 to +15, Oct. +7 to +14, Nov. +14 to +25

Nate Smith SMS Brokerage nsmith@jerrygulke.com toll free: (877) 787-6278 local: (312) 896-2090 fax: (312) 896-2052

Reproduction or rebroadcast of any portion of this information is strictly prohibited without the written permission of the Linn group, inc. the information reflected herein is derived from sources believed to be reliable; however, this information is not guaranteed as to its accuracy or completeness. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. this material and any view expressed herein are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an inducement to buy or sell commodity futures or options contracts. The Linn group and its officers, directors, employees and affiliates may take positions for their own accounts in contracts referred to herein. Trading futures involves risk of loss