The Linn Group


Monday Morning Soybean Update

Nate Smith - 03/24/08 8:13am


Soybeans lost over $1.45 last week in the front month May contract. After making historic all time highs just 2 weeks earlier the global credit crunch was more than this market could take. Traderers say hedge funds have been liquidating anything of value to raise capitol. Banks have increased credit requirements in recent days and Wall street is reeling from the debacle of Bear Stearns and others rumored to fall. Traders express concerns are that this Soy market sell off has little or nothing to do with fundamentals. Fund Trade on Thursday was heavy with an estimated 5,000 Soybeans, 4,000 Oil and 3,000 Meal traded.

Early opening calls higher. Friday the USDA announced the sale of 113,000 mt. of US soybeans to China. Talk that the Argentine farmer strike is forcing business back to the US. show The Commitment of Traders report with Options as of March 18 shows Funds: Soybeans Long 102,052 off 2,058, Meal Long 26,651 off 9,083 Oil Long 13,459 off 11,910 The Supplemental report shows Index Funds: Soybeans Long 176,541 off 6, Oil Long 73,349 off 771. Overnight Chinese soybeans meal and oil closed higher. Malaysian Palm oil futures higher.

Early Opening Calls: 10-15 cents higher, Meal $3.00 to $4.00 higher, Oil .50 to $1.00 higher.

Top News -- Chinese customs data shows Feb Soybean exports totaled 53,396 mt, while soybean imports were pegged at 2.023 mln mt. Soybean imports over the Jan & Feb period were 5.464 mln mt. -- Chinese customs data shows Feb Soybean oil imports were 349,507 mt & Argentina was the largest exporter of soyoil to China in Feb. Palm oil imports were pegged at 327,574 mt & rapeseed oil imports were 21,200 mt. -- On Monday the Dalian exchange expanded trading limits for its soybean complex futures & also its palm oil futures, both see price bands widening to 5% moves vs the previous limits of 4%. The exchange also lifted its margin requirements to 7% from the prior 5%. -- USDA Export Sale: 113,000 mt of US Soybeans sold to China on Friday for 07/08 MY delivery. -- On Thursday, import duties on refined palm oil & palm olein have been cut by India's gov't to 27.5% from original 52.5%. Crude palm oil import duties now stand at 20% down from 45% previously. Sunseed oil import taxes have been cut also. -- Canada's latest weekly canola crush was pegged at 76,114 mt down from the prior week's 80,354 mt, acc. to COPA -- Canada's latest weekly soybean crush was pegged at 28,232 mt down from the prior week's 28,505 mt, acc. to COPA -- Dalian Sept Soybean futures rose 104 yuan to 4,770 yuan/mt; Soymeal futures were mostly higher with active Sept up 13 yuan; Soyoil futures saw a rebound from loses last week, rising 270 yuan to 10,884 yuan/mt in the Sept futures -- Vegoil futures prices rises helped the Malaysian palm oil futures market higher in overnight trade, June contract rose as much as $54.47/mt to $1091/mt -- Globex Soybean Vol. 110,894; Pit Vol. 19,675; Open Interest Change: -9,476 -- Weather: 6-10 Day Forecast: Normal to Below Temps. Normal to Above Precip. The Corn Belt looks dry today. Tuesday will see rain and snow showers favoring the north. Wednesday looks dry. Thursday and Friday will see showers and thunderstorms. Temps normal to below. -- Outside markets: Energy Complex -1.21 at $100.63; Gold & Silver: -0.5 at $919.6 & +0.191 at $17.076; US $ is steady, easier vs. Euro & is slightly better vs. Yen

Cash Markets -- CIF Soybeans up 2 to 15. . Mar. +30 to +40, Apr. +22 to +17, May +27 to +35, June +24 to +27, July +26 to +35, Sept. +4 to +15, Oct. +9 to +12, Nov. +14 to +22

Nate Smith SMS Brokerage nsmith@jerrygulke.com toll free: (877) 787-6278 local: (312) 896-2090 fax: (312) 896-2052

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