Soybeans stopped their slide on Tuesday closing 4 ¼ cents higher in old crop May and 11 cents higher in new crop November. Large Fund buying was reported and many say a recovery was due after the huge sell off of all markets including commodities in the wake of the Bear Stearns Debacle. Traders say there is really no change in fundamentals but the panic selling that has taken place has subsided at least for now. Volume was substantial at the CBOT trading 196,859 Soybeans, a whopping 91,539 Oil and 4,013 Meal. Funds bought an estimated 3,000 Soybeans even in Oil and bought 3,000 Meal.
Early Opening calls lower. After a Fed rate cut of ¾ % to bring the fed funds rate to 2.25% all markets breathed a collective sigh of relief after the rate announcement as the stock market enjoyed a significant rally but the grain market was closed and unable to react. Overnight Soybeans and soy related products traded lower. Gold and Crude oil are sharply lower this morning. Soybean harvest in Brazil is estimated at 33% complete vs. 41% last year and 25% normal. Argentina Bean harvest is just getting under way. Argentina’s farmers strike is now in its 4th day as farmers continue to protest the sliding tax which they fear will ultimately drive down grain prices. Oil World issued a forecast for 2007/08 world soybean production at 221.3 mmt vs. a consumption estimate of 239.4 mmt. They estimate 2007/08 world ending stocks at 54.4 mmt vs. their previous estimate of 72.6mmt. Weather problems in the Midwest are causing major problems with flooding and now talk of delayed plantings are starting to surface. Overnight Chinese Soybean and Meal futures closed higher, Oil sharply lower. Malaysian Palm oil futures closed lower.
Early Opening Calls: Soybeans 15-17 cents lower. Meal $ 1.00 to $2.00 lower, Oil .80 to 1.20 lower.
Top News -- Oil World sees global 07/08 soybean output deficit of 18.16 mln mt vs the 06/07 surplus of 12.45 mln mt. They estimate 07/08 world Soybean harvest of amounting to 221.3 mln mt, while they forecast consumption at 239.49 mln mt. Ending stocks, acc. to this year's deficit, will fall to a forecasted 54.51 mln mt, down from 72.67 in 06/07. -- In 4Q '07 Goldman Sach's earning results show a 46% jump in commodity trading by group, while they pulled back 17% of capital deployed in equities trading. Despite the pull back in equites & more exposure to hot commodities markets, Goldman ' net income was $1.51 Bln down from the $3.2 Bln in same quarter a year ago. -- Late April or early May might be the time for a World Trade Organization deal acc. to the top EU Ag minister. -- CME Group announced it will offer electronically traded options on futures contracts in Corn, Soybeans, Soymeal, Soyoil, Wheat, Oats, & Rough Rice side by side during during day-time open outcry trading hours beginning April 14, 2008. -- Dalian Sept Soybean futures rose modestly 3 yuan to 4,780 yuan/mt; Soyoil futures for Sep delivery fell -250 to 10,790 yuan/mt & Soymeal futures were mostly higher in overnight trade -- Malaysian June palm oil futures settled down $37.80 to $1,049/mt after early trade saw the contract fall by as much as $69.30 or about 6% -- Globex Soybean Vol. 156,367; Pit Vol. 27,398; Open Interest Change: -3,711 -- Weather: 6-10 Day Forecast: Normal to Below Temps. Normal Precip. The Corn Belt will see showers coming to an end in the east later today. Thursday looks dry. Friday will see some light showers . Saturday and Sunday look dry. Temps normal to below. -- Outside markets: Energy Complex -2.06 at $107.36; Gold & Silver: -24.5 at $980.1 & -0.271 at $19.700; US $ is slightly lower vs. Euro and Yen
Nate Smith Linn Group nsmith@linngroup.com toll free: (877) 787-6278 local: (312) 896-2090 fax: (312) 896-2052
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