The Linn Group


Monday Morning Soybean Update

Nate Smith - 03/17/08 7:43am


Soybeans ended Fridays session limit down in both the May and July contract down 50 cents. An economic breakdown led by the unraveling of investment firm Bear Stearns led almost all markets lower Friday. Traders say much of the breakdown in Agricultural commodities has little to do with fundamentals and more to do with the economic woes in the US. Volume on Friday was on the light side 113,581 Soybeans, 76,021 Soybean Oil and 50,641 Meal traded. Funds sold an estimated 3,000 Soybeans, 3,200 soybean oil and 2,000 Meal.

Today’s early opening calls are lower. Traders indicate they will be hesitant to buy into the oilseed market after the emergency bailout of Bear Stearns by the US Fed and JP Morgan. Crude oil has plunged overnight and the US$ is under pressure once again down another 23. talk of big money exiting commodities persists having little to do with fundamentals. Rumors continue that China has cancelled some Soybean Oil and Palm Oil purchases. Brazil’s Safras Mercado estimates the Brazil Soybean harvest at 31% complete vs. 43% last year and 31% five year average. Friday's CFTC report for futures and options combined showed that for the week ended last Tuesday, large speculators were long 114,996 lots, down 11,601 from the previous week and short 33,769, up 2,637 lots. Overnight Malaysian Palm oil futures closed down. Chinese soybean and meal closed down, Bean oil limit down.

Top News

-- US Soybean acreage is forecast at 71.3 mln acres vs Jan forecast of 70.0 mln, acc. to Informa report

-- China's Cofco said it expects to sell all of its 42,000 mt of vegoil output in March. The company produced 22% more vegoil in Jan & Feb period than year ago, saying its production was 60,200 mt

-- Chinese customs data shows Feb soyoil imports totaled 350,000 mt, up from the 175k mt seen in same month a year ago.

-- In a press release, CME Group announced it will offer electronically traded options on futures contracts in Corn, Soybeans, Soymeal, Soyoil, Wheat, Oats, & Rough Rice side by side during during day-time open outcry trading hours beginning April 14, 2008.

-- Dalian Soybean complex lower. Increased vegoil supplies into China helped push futures lower, Sept Soybeans were off 124 yuan to 4,976 yuan/mt; Soyoil futures were sharply lower down 478 to 11,500 yuan/mt; Soymeal futures were 70 lower

-- Palm oil for May delivery fell 4% to $1,107 a ton on the Malaysia Derivatives Exchange

-- Malaysian Palm Oil Futures June contract was down as much as 174 ringgit to 3,515 ringgit ($1,102)m/t, before settling down 89 ringgit at 3,600 ringgit.

-- Globex Soybean Vol. 95,169; Pit Vol. 15,468; Open Interest Change: -3,506

-- Weather: 6-10 Day Forecast: Below Normal Temps. Normal to Below Precip. The Corn Belt will see rain and thunderstorms today and Tuesday. Wednesday and Thursday look dry. Friday will see a return of showers. Temps normal to below.

-- Outside markets: Energy Complex -1.14 at $109.07; Gold & Silver: +11.5 at $1011.4 & +0.496 at $21.100; US $ is slightly better vs. Euro & is better vs. Yen

Cash Markets

-- CIF Soybeans steady to off 8 . FH Mar. +3 to +12, Mar. -2 to +5, Apr. -2 to +5, May +5 to +20, June +10 to +15, July +20 to +30, Sept. ?? to +15, Oct. Opt. to +8, Nov. +5 to +20

Nate Smith

SMS Brokerage

nsmith@jerrygulke.com

toll free: (877) 787-6278

local: (312) 896-2090

fax: (312) 896-2052

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