The Linn Group


Friday Morning Soybean Update

Nate Smith - 08/31/12 8:45am


Soybean prices continued their recent surge ending 10 1/2 cents higher on Thursday. This gain was on top of a 30 cent plus rally on Wednesday. For the week November soybeans have gained 32 cents for the week. Pundants want to talk about beans settling well off the highs however up is up and the close is once again a new high close for the move. Volume was moderate, Soybeans traded 189,554, Meal 87,686 and Oil traded 110,088. Funds were net buyers of an estimated 3,500 Soybeans, 500 Oil and 2,300 Meal.

The Soy complex is on the defensive this morning trading 12 cents lower with meal and oil also weaker. Talk of profit taking ahead of the long Labor Day Holiday weekend and month end. Chinese grain markets closed lower overnight. First notice day for all Sep grain and oilseed products this morning. Yesterdays Soybean export sales figures takes US sales to 58% of the total USDA estimate for 2012/13. This is a record sales pace for Soybeans at this point . Rain and wind from what is left of Hurricane Issac are expected to move into the central US Midwest this weekend. Farmers say this will help late finishing beans.

Top News -- Friday, August 31st, is first notice day for CBOT September grain & oilseed contracts -- Top Chinese vegoil crushers were called to a meeting with the Chinese Nat'l Development & Reform Commission to discuss rising soymeal prices and were reportedly told to not speculate excessively on those movements -- Saskatchewan weekly crop progress report puts all grain/oilseed harvest at 21% complete as of Aug 30, that's above the 5 yr average of 17% and equal to last year's pace of 21% -- Saskatchewan weekly crop progress report puts Canola harvest at 14% finished, while barley progress is 15% -- Saskatchewan weekly crop progress report indicates topsoil moisture on cropland is rated as 7% surplus, 67% adequate, 21% short and 5% very short. -- AgRural forecasting the 2012/13 soybean crop in Brazil at 82 mln mt, a record amount if realized, and compares to the 66.4 mln mt produced this year -- Monthly data from the Argentine Ag Ministry shows July 2012 soybean crush rate at 2.96 mln mt down -8.5% from the year ago month. Crushers there produced 2.3 mln mt of soymeal off -9.5% from the yr ago month, and produced 0.555 mln mt of soyoil off -9.7% vs the yr ago month -- Buenos Aires Grain Exchange weekly report pegs Sunseed planting at 14.2% complete, that's up 4.5% over the past week but -2.0% lower than the year ago pace. They're still projecting 2.0 mln ha to be planted -- EIA monthly biodiesel report shows U.S. production of biodiesel was 91 million gallons in June 2012, with 73% of the production coming from the US Midwest region. Over the January-June 2012 was 523 million gallons, which was up from production of 365 million gallons during the first 6 months of 2011. -- Pending Tender: Thailand's Ag Ministry announced it will seek up to 30,000 mt of crude palm oil by the end of August to make up for the shortfall in their domestic crude oil supplies -- Pending Tender: MMTC of India announced it's seeking 18,000 mt of RBD palm olein for shipment in September in a tender that closes on Sept 7th -- Dalian January soybean futures on Friday lost -16 yuan ending at 4,914 yuan/mt, while soymeal futures gave up -26 yuan to end at 4,229 yuan/mt -- Dalian palm oil futures on Friday lost -78 yuan ending the session at 8.096 yuan/mt, soyoil futures gave back -24 yuan finishing at 9,998 yuan/mt -- CBOT Soybean Volume & Open Interest for August 30th 2012 was 189,554; Open Interest increased +6,956 to 747,934 -- CBOT Soybean Oil Volume & Open Interest for August 30th 2012 was 110,088; Open Interest decreased -4,144 to 330,204 -- CBOT Soybean Meal Volume & Open Interest for August 30th 2012 was 87,686; Open Interest increased +1,836 to 259,787 -- Weather: 6-10 Day forecast: Above Normal Temps. Normal to Above Precip -- Outside markets. Crude Oil up +64c @ $95.26; Gold up +$6.20 @ $1663.30 ; Silver up +27c @ $30.72 ; US $ index off -52 pts @ 81.19

Cash Markets -- CIF Soybeans off 1 to 10. Aug. +75 to +??, Sept. +75 to +??, Oct. +80 to +82, Nov. +83 to +86, Dec. +87 to +96, Jan. +86 to +92, Feb. +75 to +??