Soybean Prices ended the session up 1/2 cent on Monday. Traders attribute the price action to consolidation ahead of the Supply/Demand due out Thursday Morning. Interesting to note that despite the narrow trading range volume was at the upper end of the recent range Implying position squaring ahead of the report. Most analysts are expecting a bullish report. Volume on Monday was heavy. Soybeans traded 195,743, Oil 91,563 and Meal 68,100. Funds were net buyers of an estimated 500 Soybeans, 3,200 Oil and sold 2,000 Meal
Opening Call lower. Average trade estimates for Thursdays report for Soybeans is at 0.273 for ending stocks for US soybeans. World ending stocks are pegged at 61.380. Acreage estimates by many analysts have been released. Reuters polled 24 analysts and posted an average estimate for Soybean plantings at 75.3 mil acres. This is slightly above last years estimates of 75.0 mil acres. The USDA will release Acreage in their March 30th. acreage report. The range of estimates was 77.5 and 73.8. Brazil grain analyst Celeres lowered its estimate for Brazil Soybean production to 72.0 mmt from their previous estimate of 74.4. Crop Scout Cordonnier lowered his estimate for Argentina Soybean production this week by 2.0 mmt. vs. their previous 35.0 mmt. Outside markets are supportive. $USD is trading 20 lower, Gold and Crude unchanged.
Opening Call: Soybeans 1-2 lower, Oil .10-20 lower, Meal .50 to 1.50 lower. Top News -- Reuters poll of grain analyst shows they expect US farmers to plant a total 94.2 mln Corn acres this spring along with 75.3 mln acres of soybeans expected to be planted. -- UN food agency warns Paraguay's 11/12 summer crops will suffer from drought and yield losses. Corn is expected to be the most afflicted with some accounts saying 58% will be lost, and wheat losses will be -17% from last year. -- Analysts expect Thursday's USDA Feb supply/demand report to show 11/12 Soybean ending stocks at 0.27 bln bu slightly lower than the Jan report, Corn ending stocks are seen at 0.791 bln bu down from the 0.85 bln bu -- Grain analysts expect Thursday's USDA Feb supply/demand report to show Brazil soybean crop at 71.2 mln mt compared to the 74 mln mt estimate in January. Brazil's Corn crop is seen at 59.2 mln mt down from Jan's 61 mln mt -- Grain analysts expect Thursday's USDA Feb report to show Argentina soybean crop at 48 mln mt compared to the 50.5 mln mt estimate in January. Argentina's Corn crop is expected at 21.66 mln mt down from Jan's 26 mln mt -- Monday's USDA Weekly Soybean Inspections: 37.292 mln bu for w/e Feb 2 ; expected 37.0 mln bu -- Dalian Sept. Soybean futures were up + 2 @ 4,420 yuan/mt./ Sept. Soymeal was up + 7 @ 3,025 yuan/mt. -- Liffe May Rapeseed futures were down - .75 @ 450.00 euros/mt. -- CBOT Soybean Volume & Open Interest for February 6th 2012 was 195,743; Open Interest increased +8,379 to 513,075. -- CBOT Soybean Oil Volume & Open Interest for February 6th 2012 was 91,563; Open Interest decreased -5,049 to 320,042. -- CBOT Soybean Meal Volume & Open Interest for February 6th 2012 was 68,100; Open Interest decreased -816 to 193,915. -- Outside markets. Crude Oil off -60c @ $96.31; Gold off $7.10 @ $1717.80 ; Silver off -37c @ $33.38 ; US $ index up 9 pts @ 79.25
Cash Markets Bean Barge Corn Barge SRW Barge HRW Track Ill Riv Frt FH Feb +78/82 H +68/71 H 450 Feb +75/80 H +66/68 H +70/74 H +118/123 H 415 Mch +70/74 H +62/64 +70/74 H +115/120 H 400 Apr +62/66 K +59/61 K +58/?? K +110/115 K
Truck Beans Corn Wheat Meal Hi-pro Oil
Chicago +0 H +10 H +0 H
Toledo -15 H +12 H +23 H
Dec ILL +8 H +25 H -8 H -25 H
