The Linn Group


Thursday Morning Soybean Update

Nate Smith - 01/26/12 9:16am


Soybeans closed weaker on Wednesday ending 6 1/2 cents lower. Most of the weakness was attributed to an improving weather situation in South America. Improving prospects for moisture also pressured the market. This despite a weaker $USD and an announcement by the US Federal reserve that interest rates would not rise until late 2014. After the Fed announcement most markets firmed but Beans were unable to close into positive territory. Volume on Wednesday was moderate to weak. Soybeans traded 142,156, Oil 63,934 and Meal traded 49,552. Funds were net sellers of 3,500 Soybeans, 2,000 Meal and bought 200 Oil.

Opening call higher. Weekly export sales for soybeans were slightly disappointing at 466,300 11/12 and 13,126 for 12/13 below expectations of 700 to 850k. Meal sales 124,200 for 11/12 and 2,400 for 12/13. Oil sales were 2,500 vs expectations of 5-15k. Rumors continue that Russia will do something to restrict grain exports. Talk now is that the Russian government is expected to impose duties on grain exports in April when grain shipments are likely to hit 23 to 25 mmt. Outside markets are supportive this morning. $USD is trading 44 lower, Equities firmer and Crude oil is trading $1.50 higher.

Opening Call: Soybeans 8-10 higher, Meal 2-3 higher, Oil .20 to .40 higher.

-- SGS estimated palm oil exports over the January 1-25 period from Malaysia were 947,401 mt down -20% from the same 25 day period in December. -- Intertek estimated palm oil exports over the January 1-25 period from Malaysia were 981,275 mt down -17% from their figure for same 25 day period in December. -- Pending Tender: Cash merchandisers say the state run trading corp of Bangladesh is seeking 4,000 mt of Soyoil in a Jan 19th tender deadline -- Pending Tender: Cash sources say 20,000 mt of Soyoil and 30,000 mt of sunseed oil is being sought in a Jan 26th tender bid deadline by Egypt's FIHC. The vegoil is for arrival between Feb 27 and Mar 19th -- Dalian markets still on holiday -- Liffe Feb. Rapeseed futures were up + 6.75 @ 463.00 euros/mt. -- In Malaysia Apr. Palm Oil futures were down - 38 @ 3,131 ringgit/mt., range on the day was 3,165 to 3,127. -- Malaysian Crude Palm Ol cash markets had no trades, went out bid 3,130 offered 3,150 ringgit. -- In Malaysia Feb. delivery of Palm Olein was quoted @ 1,066.25 ringgit/mt. Feb. Palm Oil went out offered 1,050.00 ringgit/mt. -- CBOT Soybean Volume & Open Interest for January 25th 2012 was 142,156; Open Interest decreased -769 to 477,535. -- CBOT Soybean Oil Volume & Open Interest for January 25th 2012 was 63,934; Open Interest increased +1,001 to 316,326. -- CBOT Soybean Meal Volume & Open Interest for January 25th 2012 was 49,552; Open Interest increased +147 to 202,115. -- Weather: 6 – 10 Day Forecast: Normal to Above Temps. Normal to Above Precip -- Outside markets. Crude Oil up +$1.45 @ $100.85; Gold up $18.00 @ $1718.20 ; Silver up 35c @ $33.45; US $ index off -38 pts @ 79.33

Cash Markets -- CIF Soybeans steady. Jan. +74 to +75, FH Feb. +70 to +74, Feb. +68 to +72, Mar. +65 to +70, A/M +57 to +65, June +55 to +60, July +55 to +??, Aug. +55 to +??