The Linn Group


Corn Commentary - Corn at a crossroad

James Riley - 01/26/12 9:15am


The corn market was higher again on Wednesday as it found good buying on an early selloff and held the gains even as soybeans sold off. The March contract closed up about 4 cents and the December closed up ½ higher. The March opened up about 1 and traded as much as 5 higher before a sudden reversal took corn almost 10 cents off the highs to about 5 lower. This move was the low of the day and within 15 minutes, corn was trading higher on the day and the corn market continued to firm the rest of the day. Corn actually traded about 8 higher around noon before another round of selling and corn became very volatile in the final 15-20 min before closing higher. The corn market was lead early in the session by the wheat market as we continue to see some short covering and the big reversal in the US$ lower helped support grains. The cash market continues to be very strong and there are very few willing to sell futures as long as the cash market remains very tight. There are still a lot of people that believe the USDA is dead wrong and the corn isn’t here in the US. The weather in So America seems to be ok and the market is largely not paying attention to the weather but there is a lot of talk about the deterioration of the crops and the estimates keep going lower. The volume remains good at 330,000 contracts and the funds were buyers of 10,000 contracts.

Overnight, the corn market continued to rally with the March closing up about 9 cents and the December up about 5 cents. The corn market continues its march back up to the pre-report levels and that should provide pretty big resistance for corn unless we have some new story. The corn market was up overnight, but there wasn’t any big news event that pushed it higher. The weekly export sales were good again this week at over 1.0 mt for the 2 years combined which was above expectations. We saw sales spread out across a bunch of different countries so that is good. Mexico continues to be a big buyer of US corn and wheat and feed wheat from other countries. The drought continues to really hurt their crops and they could end up being the wild card in the corn demand. They are always a big buyer of US corn, but maybe they pick up some of the slack from other countries that went other places?? The corn market will be called to open higher today in line with the closes overnight and grains seem to be at the crossroads.

GLOBEX Overnight Contract Last Net Change High Low Volume ZCH12 643^2 8^6 644^0 634^0 19132 ZCK12 648^6 8^4 649^0 639^4 5665 ZCN12 652^0 8^0 653^0 643^0 6255 ZCU12 591^6 4^6 592^2 586^0 1300

LaSalle Street News Early Opening Calls: 8-10 higher

-- Cash sources say 50,000 mt of feed Barley was purchased by Tunisia on Thursday -- Private analysts at ProAgro say 2012 harvest in the Ukraine is likely to drop to around 40 mln mt from last year's 56.7 mln mt due to poor weather conditions for the winter grain crop. They expect wheat harvest at 14 mln mt, compared to the 22.3 mln mt last year -- Analysts at ProAgro citing port data say over the January 1-25 period the Ukraine exported a total of 775,000 mt of grain. Of that total 120,000 mt was wheat and 588,400 mt was corn -- Romania’s state news agency reported the closing of 4 of its Black Sea ports due to heavy winds and a snowstorm. -- Brock Associates, private analyst group, says US farmers are likely to plant as much as 95 million acres of Corn this spring taking advantage of high prices. -- Thursday's EIA Fuel Ethanol Stocks change: +0.3 mln at 19.8 mln bbl -- Thursday's EIA Fuel Ethanol Production change: -7,000 bbl to 934,000 bbls -- The USDA reported weekly Egg sets were down 5% from the same week a year ago while Broiler placements were down 4% from the same week a year ago. -- Pending Tender: In a Feb 2nd deadline Jordan is seeking 100,000 mt of feed Barley from optional origins. -- Pending Tender: A gov't official in Japan announced a new SBS tender that wraps up on Feb 1st, they're seeking 100,000 mt of feed Wheat and 200,000 mt of feed Barley for shipment by May 31 -- Dalian markets still on holiday -- Liffe Mar. Corn futures were up + 1.25 @ 204.75 Euros/mt. -- CBOT Corn Volume & Open Interest for January 25th 2012 was 330,112; Open interest decreased -3,038 to 1,211,423. -- CBOT Ethanol Volume & Open Interest for January 25th 2012 was 1,098; Open Interest decreased -63 to 10,169. -- Weather: 6 – 10 Day Forecast: Normal to Above Temps. Normal to Above Precip -- Outside markets. Crude Oil up +$1.45 @ $100.85; Gold up $18.00 @ $1718.20 ; Silver up 35c @ $33.45; US $ index off -38 pts @ 79.33

LaSalle Street News Cash Markets -- CIF Corn steady up 5. Jan. +83 to +85, Feb. +68 to +72, Mar. +65 to +66, A/M +58 to +61, J/J +58 to +61, Aug. +86 to +?? , OND +56

TREND:

The technician saw today as a negative day. Markets reversed down and it should have put a short term top in. The fact that they rallied back so readily may be signs of a bigger deal and bottom action that expands?

The corn market also left the Friday closes and continued the rally today. The top was extended but only slightly. Support will surface at 6.18. Targets are a test of 6.50. Risk the lows from last week. If we take them out, market is headed to test of 5.80 to 5.60.

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