The Linn Group


Corn Commentary - It keeps going higher and higher

James Riley - 01/25/12 10:01am


The corn market was higher again on Tuesday, the 4th day in a row, as rumors were flying and pushed corn higher. The March contract closed up about 10 cents and the December up about 6 cents with the December closing up near the highs of the day. The corn market actually started lower which established the lows of the day before rallying and trading about 7 higher and then 15 higher before settling back. The soybeans rallied around midday and pushed corn into new highs, but eventually we settled back and traded in a tight range. The March contract settled back into the close, but the December remained strong and actually closed near the highs of the session. There were two rumors driving corn, the possibility of an export tax on Ukrainian wheat(feed wheat), and a ban on corn exports by Argentina. Both rumors were denied by government officials, but it didn’t seem to matter. There are also a lot of people that don’t believe the USDA numbers on corn stocks in the US and feel there is a major correction eventually showing tight stocks. There is definite damage to the corn crop in So America, but we won’t know the extent for awhile yet, but that won’t stop the guesses by analysts. The volume was heavy at 389,000 contracts and funds were buyers of about 20,000 contracts.

Overnight, the March contract closed up about 3 cents while the December was down about 2 cents. There isn’t much new news out this morning, but the grains were higher for the most part even with the US$ up about 40 points. The corn market will await export sales tomorrow and expect to see good sales again this week. The rumors from yesterday are still around the market even with the denials and probably won’t go away anytime soon because of tight old crop stocks. The weather in So America seems to be pretty good with rains falling around most of the dry areas, but the market doesn’t seem to care. This isn’t unusual because eventually all the weather gets built into prices and all the rain in the world can’t help corn that is already damaged. The corn market will be called mixed today with old crop higher and new crop lower.

GLOBEX Overnight Contract Last Net Change High Low Volume ZCH12 633^4 3^2 636^2 629^0 13702 ZCK12 638^2 3^0 641^0 634^0 2875 ZCN12 642^0 3^4 644^0 637^2 4255 ZCU12 584^6 -1^4 588^2 582^6 1413

LaSalle Street News Top News -- In a Feb 2nd deadline Jordan is seeking 100,000 mt of feed Barley from optional origins. -- A total of 20,000 mt of Aussie feed Barley for March delivery was purchased by United Arab Emirates in a tender that closed earlier this week. -- Japan's Ag Ministry said a lack of buyers and sellers prompted them to cancel a 200k mt barley and 9k mt wheat SBS tender scheduled to conclude today. -- A gov't official in Japan announced a new SBS tender that wraps up on Feb 1st, they're seeking 100,000 mt of feed Wheat and 200,000 mt of feed Barley for shipment by May 31 -- Some grain logistics managers in Australia say the industry needs to work to smooth and improve export handling this year to help work down wheat stockpiles that have jumped nearly 60% in December from November and ahead of the northern hemisphere marketing year. -- Ag official in Mexico says drought conditions there are expected to become more intense affecting local crops enough to increase grain imports, adding the gov't has earmarked $2.5 bln for imports (MXN 34 bln), acc. to headlines from dow -- USDA attaché to Russia in latest post report suggests strong domestic demand will slow pace of grain exports in the last half of July 11/June 12 marketing year. In the first half of the MY they exported an estimated 18 mln mt, but the attaché does not see full MY exports above 24 mln mt. -- US private crop insurance industry group estimated the during 2011 more than $9 bln in indemnity payments were made to US farmers surpassing the previous record of $8.7 bln back in 2008 -- Pending Tender: Japan is seeking 200k mt feed barley and 9k mt feed wheat in SBS tender scheduled to conclude on Jan 25th -- Liffe Mar. Corn futures were up + 2.25 @ 205.00 Euros/mt. -- Dalian markets remain on week long holiday this week -- CBOT Corn Volume & Open Interest for January 24th 2012 was 389,520; Open interest decreased -5,264 to 1,214,354. -- CBOT Ethanol Volume & Open Interest for January 24th 2012 was 1,376; Open Interest increased +118 to 10,232. -- Weather: 6 – 10 Day Forecast: Normal to Above Temps. Normal to Above Precip -- Outside markets. Crude Oil off 46c @ $98.49; Gold off $7.60 @ $1,656.90; Silver off -11c @ $31.86; US $ index up 33 pts @ 80.36

LaSalle Street News Cash Markets -- CIF Corn up 2 to 8. Jan. +78 to +??, Feb. +68 to +72, Mar. +65 to +66, A/M +60 to +65, J/J +60 to +62, Aug. +86 to +?? , OND +56 to +58

TREND:

The corn market also left the Friday closes and continued the rally today. The top today was at the last Fib retracements at 6.36. May be enough but very few of my cash contacts will hear anything of short corn futures with the cash screaming higher. Support will surface at 6.18. Risk the lows from last week. If we take them out, market is headed to test of 5.80 to 5.60.

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