The Linn Group


Thursday Morning Soybean Update

Nate Smith - 09/02/10 9:00am


Soybean prices declined on Wednesday for the 3rd consecutive day. Strong moves by corn and wheat were not enough to boost soybean futures prices. This is consistent with the theme that the corn crop is not as good as initially thought and talk is that the Soybean crop is improving. Soybean Oil jumped to early gains boosted by crude oil early. Meal was the weak link all day ending $1.60 lower. Volume was low. Soybeans traded 90,142, Meal 54,271, Oil 66,972. Funds were net sellers of an estimated 4,000 Soybeans, 2,000 Meal, and bought 1,000 Oil.

Opening Call higher. Weekly export sales released today were below analyst expectations. Soybean sales were 900,mt for 09/10 and 613, 000 mil mt for a total of 613,900. Expectations were higher at 700,000 to 950,000. Meal sales were above expectations and oil sales were in line with expectations. FC Stone and Linn Group released updated yield projections yesterday FC Stone estimated a soybean crop at 3.390 bil. bu with a 43.5 bpa yield. Linn Group estimated soybean production of 3.399 bil. bu. and a yield of 43.5. Yesterdays break near the $10.00 level should satisfy the bear side for the time being. Look to be a buyer of November Soybeans on a buy stop above 1009. if filled risk down to 999.

Opening Call: Soybeans 1 to 2 cents higher, Meal .50 to $1.50 higher, Oil .05 to .10 higher.

Cash Markets -- CIF Soybeans steady up 8. Sept. +60 to +??, Oct. +69 to +75, Nov. +72 to +75, Dec. +78 to +82, Jan. +75 to +80, Feb. +70 to +80