Soybean prices declined on Tuesday closing Nov. 12 ½ cents lower. The market opened under pressure due to Monday afternoons weekly crop report by the USDA. in the report the crop conditions were left unchanged from the previous week. Most traders and analysts felt that crop conditions had declined. This is the second consecutive week that expectations were for a crop decline and the second consecutive week that no decline was reported. Funds were active participants selling an estimated 4,000 Soybeans, 4,000 Oil and 2,000 Meal. Oil was weak all day and closed 48 points lower. Meal was strong early but plunged in the final hour to end $3.50 lower. Volume on Tuesday was low but much better than the previous week’s sessions. Soybeans traded 97,917, Meal 62,631 and Oil 91,659.
Opening call higher. Grain markets were higher across the board overnight helped by a weaker $USD. Since the night session has ended the $USD has weakened further and is currently trading over 90 pts lower. Crude Oil is over $1.00 higher currently and Dow futures are 111 higher. Talk today of new fund allocations for all commodity markets could boost prices in the next few days as these monies find their way to the various products. The USDA raised their estimate for fiscal year 2010 farm exports to $107.5 bil. from their previous estimate of $104.5 bil. They also raised their 2011 estimate to $113 bil. which would be the second largest on record. A survey by Farm Futures magazine shows US producers plan to increase planted bean acres to 79.6 mil acres vs 78.9 mil acres an increase of 1%. Chinese Grain Authority has met with local crushers to decide on sales of State Soy reserves to crushers. The report says as much as 1.5 mmt of Soybeans could be offered into the market. Look to be a buyer of November Soybeans today at $10.12 ½ and risk a close below $10.00
Opening Call: Soybeans 3 to 5 higher, Oil .20 to .30 higher, Meal .50 to $1.00 higher.
Top News -- Regional Chinese oilseed officials are talking terms of an auction with Soybean crushers about selling them soybeans out of gov't reserves to help reign in high prices. Some report as much as 1.5 mln mt of Soy could be offered into the market -- Argentine Ag Minister suggested next season's Soybean crop would likely be at the 52.0 mln mt mark, down slightly from the recent harvest of 52.7 mln mt -- Sen. Grassley of Iowa told reporters at Indiana farm trade show that the EPA will likely approve increasing the Ethanol blend to 15% in gasoline but the approval will also probably come with convoluted rules. -- USDA increased its fiscal year 2011 farm export expectations to $113 billion, up $8.5 billion over the current fiscal year expectations -- USDA report suggests in the next fiscal year China will buy $15 billion worth of US farm exports, that would be $1 billion more than the 2010 fiscal year projection. The 2011 projections would make China 2nd largest farm import, leapfrogging Mexico's $14.5 billion. -- Imports by US farms in the fiscal year 2011 are expected at $81.5 billion, that would be a jump of $4.5 billion from the expected 2010 fiscal year imports, acc. to USDA report -- Traders note FC Stone production survey out this afternoon, some expect them to lower their estimates -- SGS reported their Malaysian palm oil export figures for August, they estimated 1.15 mln mt were sent abroad, while expectations were for 1.2 mln mt -- Intertek estimated August Malaysian palm oil exports were 1.22 mln mt down from July's 1.41 mln mt, or a 13.5% drop -- Crude Palm Oil cash markets in Malaysia traded @ 2,680 ringgit/mt. -- Sept. delivery of Refined Palm Oil was quoted @ $907.50/mt., as Sept. Palm Olein was quoted @ $915.00/mt. -- Pending Tender: Merchandisers report that BSPA of Taiwan is seeking 40,000 to 60,000 mt of US or Latam Soybeans for shipment in FH November -- Dalian May Soybean futures were down -3 @ 4,001 yuan/mt., and May Soymeal was unchanged @ 2,982 yuan.mt. -- Dalian May Palm Oil futures were up +4 @ 7,190 yuan/mt., as May Soyoil was up +6 @ 8,018 yuan/mt. -- Malaysian Nov. Palm Oil futures were down -35 @ 2,535 ringgit/mt., range on the day was 2,555 to 2,506 . -- Liffe Nov. Rapeseed futures were unchanged overnight @ 375.75 euros/mt., as Feb. fell a little bit down -.25 @ 377.75 euros/mt. -- Globex Soybean Vol. 87,401; Pit Vol. 7,159; Open Interest Change: - 499 -- Weather: 6-10 Day Forecast: Above Normal Temps. Normal to Above Precip. -- Outside markets: Energy Complex +0.94 at $72.86; Gold & Silver: +5.7 at $1256.0 & +0.028 at $19.460; US $ -0.844 at $82.750
Cash Markets -- CIF Soybeans up 5. Aug. +55 to +??, Sept. +58 to +??, Oct. +70 to +75, Nov. +76 to +80, Dec. +74 to +78, Jan. +76 to +80, Feb. +70 to +80