The Linn Group


FriDay Morning Soybean Update

Nate Smith - 03/12/10 9:03am


Soybean prices declined sharply on Thursday closing front month May down 27 ½ cents. In contrast to the positive reaction to Wednesdays USDA report the Soy complex reacted very negatively to the poor export sales report yesterday. Weekly export sales were terrible. The USDA reported a negative 118,800 mt. for old crop and 65,100 for new crop. This reflects large cancellations mostly out of China. Most analysts were caught off guard with these numbers as average expectations were expected to be in the 150 to 25 mt. range not a negative as was reported. Meal sales were weak as well a marketing year low. Volume on Thursday was very heavy. Soybeans traded traded 162,538, Meal traded 71,271 and oil traded 58,709. Funds were net sellers of an estimated 7,000 Soybeans, 3,500 Oil and 2,200 Meal.

Opening call higher. Talk of a relief rally today at least initially after the big break yesterday. Today the USDA reports private sale of 220,000 mt of US Soybeans sold to China for the 09/10 MY. The $USD is trading lower this morning. Talk that some Chinese Brazilian Soybean purchases could be switched to the US due to port congestion. The Argentine Buenos Aires grain exchange raised Soybean production to 53 mmt vs. its previous estimate of 52..0 mmt. Talk that China may raise interest rates by .25 next week. Look to sell a rally if possible today. Resistance in May Soybeans shows at 946. Overnight Chinese Soybeans, Meal and Oil futures closed lower.

Early Opening Calls: Soybeans 4 to 6 cents higher, Meal $1.50 to $2.00 higher, Oil .20 to .30 higher

Cash Markets -- CIF Soybeans steady up 4. FH Mar. +60 to +64, Mar. +55 to +56, April +45 to +51, May +46 to +52, June +46 to +52, July +45 to +55, Oct. +44 to +46, Nov. +45 to +50, Jan. +45 to +50