Soybean Prices broke sharply closing 21 ½ cents lower in May beans. Some want to attribute the sharply higher $USD but the lack of commercial stoppers of bean and meal deliveries and poor crushing margins more than likely are weighing on the market. Weekly export sales were a marketing year low of 182,4000 mt. Informa raised their Argentine Bean corp estimate by 1 mil. mmt. Informa also estimated that US soybean acres would likely stay unchanged. These factors all added to a lower close. Volume on Thursday was heavy. Soybeans traded 154,475, Meal 84,893 and Oil 63,161. Funds were net sellers of an estimated 4,800 soybeans, 2,100 Oil and 3,500 Meal.
Opening call: higher. Higher. Traders note they expect a short covering bounce after yesterday’s sharp losses. Meal traded to levels not seen since March of last year. This sets up a very bearish scenario as demand appears to be waning. Look for a potential bounce to sell in Meal and Soybeans today. Look to be a seller of May beans at 954 and maintain short positions with a target price of 930 initially. Overnight Chinese Soybeans and Meal futures closed lower Oil higher.
Opening call: Soybeans 3-5 higher, Oil .20 to .30 higher and Meal $1.00 to $2.00 higher.
Top News -- The head of China’s State Administration of Grain cited a survey to reporters that says Chinese Farmers will again plant more Corn this year and reduce Soybean plantings. -- An official from China’s Ag Ministry says big Soybean imports will continue and in the future China will need 60 mmt. of Soybeans of which two thirds will be imported. -- Informa estimates Brazilian soy crop at 66.5 mmt, unchanged from prior reports (and an increase of 9.4 mmt from last year); Brazil corn seen at 53.3 mmt, also unchanged from prior estimates (2.3 mmt increase from last year) -- Informa estimates Argentina's soybean production at 55.0 mmt, an increase of 1 mmt from prior reports, and up 23 mmt from last year - corn production seen up 7.5 mmt from last year -- Industry data shows weak demand from surrounding Asian nations prompts decline in Indian oilmeal exports, off during Feb 2010 by 26% from the year ago month -- Farm output in India forecasted to decline 2.0% in 2010 acc. to Prime Minister -- MARCH 2010 SOYBEAN FUTURES 3/4/10 : 641 contracts -- MARCH 2010 SOYBEAN MEAL FUTURES 3/4/10 : 114 contracts -- MARCH 2010 SOYBEAN OIL FUTURES 3/4/10 : 152 contracts -- Malaysian palm oil futures fell 4 yuan on Friday to end the session at 2,670 yuan/mt. It traded in a range from 2,700 down to 2665 ringgit/mt -- Refined palm markets in Malaysia shows palm oil quoted $810/mt, while refined palm olein was quoted $825/mt -- Malaysian crude palm oil cash markets traded Friday in a range of 2,680 to 2,690 ringgit/mt -- Dalian Sep soybean futures fell 39 yuan to 3,822 yuan/mt. The contract traded as high as 3,840 and 3,804 yuan/mt -- Dalian Sep soymeal futures lost 32 yuan in overnight trade, ending Friday's session at 2,766 yuan/mt -- In a rare divergence Dalian Sep soyoil futures were off -4 yuan to 7,488 yuan/mt while Sep palm oil futures added 44 yuan to end Friday's session at 6,966 yuan/mt -- Malaysian Palm -- Liffe May rapeseed futures were up 0.75 euro at 290.75 euros/mt. -- eCBOT Soybean Vol. 141,494; Pit Vol. 10,372; Open Interest Change: +3260 -- Weather: 6 - 10 Day Forecast: Normal to Below Temps. Normal to Above Precip. -- Outside markets. Energy crude $1.00 higher; Gold mixed to unchanged & Silver 13c higher ; US $ index higher, lower vs Euro currencies, but better against Yen.
Cash Markets -- CIF Soybeans steady up 1. FH Mar. +53 to +60, Mar. +48 to +55, April +45 to +50, May +47 to +53, June +45 to +55, July +47 to +55, Oct. +43 to +45, Nov. +45 to +48, Jan. +45 to +50