Wheat Morning Update & Commentary:
Grain prices seem to be in a stabilizing mode, which is not a surprise given Tuesday's WASDE Report. The WASDE should reinforce the bearish stance by reporting burdensome wheat carryouts, both here and abroad - but a reduction in world acres will also be noted. Look for traders to continue to square position ahead of the tomorrow's release. The recent break in futures has increased buying interest. Russia has halted its intervention tenders for the time being, because it has seen an interest in private buying. Japan's Ag Ministry announced Monday it was seeking 105,000 mt US, Canadian, and Aussie Wheat in a Wednesday, Feb 10 tender. Iraqi state grain official said a tender that concluded in late January resulted in 400,000 mt of Canadian Wheat bought for delivery in Apr-May. Nidera, ADM and Dreyfus were the reported sellers for around $215/mt fob. CCC on Friday issued a tender for 42,360 mt of US HRW Wheat for donation to Ethiopia and Yemen with bids due by Feb 10. Delivery of grain to ship is from Mar 5 to Apr 5. Almost 64,000 mt of Wheat was bought by the United Nations for donation to 3 nations, with sources for the grain said to be Ukraine and Kazakstan origin. Basis throughout the U.S. continues to be at historic levels as the domestic market remains in a huge supply glut.
Beans led commodities higher overnight, Chicago wheat finished up 4 3/6 cents. Kansas City finished up 4 cents and MPLS finished up 4 3/4 cents. Kansas City is now 10 1/2 cents premium to Chicago and MPLS is 29 1/4 cents premium the Chicago. Matiff wheat is trading slightly higher on the day.
Early Opening Calls: 3-5 cents better
Globex Overnight Contract Last Net Change High Low Volume ZWH10 478^0 4^6 481^4 476^2 3713 ZWK10 492^0 4^0 496^0 490^6 2336 ZWN10 505^4 5^0 508^0 503^2 730 ZWU10 523^2 6^4 523^4 523^2 243 KEH10 488^4 4^0 492^0 488^0 329 KEN10 511^2 4^2 515^0 511^0 473 MWEH10 507^2 4^6 509^0 505^0 44 MWEN10 525^4 0
Top News -- Russian media citing a deputy Ag Ministry official, reports gov't grain intervention tenders have been halted due to better demand from private grain buyers, but could re-enter market if demand tapers off -- Deputy Prime Minister in Russia suggested the country needs to export 20 mln mt of grain in the 09/10 crop year -- In a regular rules tender, Japan's Ag Ministry announced Monday it was seeking 105,000 mt US, Canadian, and Aussie Wheat in a Wednesday, Feb 10 tender -- Iraqi state grain official said a tender that concluded in late January resulted in 400,000 mt of Canadian Wheat bought for delivery in Apr-May. Nidera, ADM and Dreyfus were the reported sellers for around $215/mt fob -- Almost 64,000 mt of Wheat was bought by the United Nations for donation to 3 nations, with sources for the grain said to be Ukraine and Kazakstan origin, acc. to traders -- CCC on Friday issued a tender for 42,360 mt of US HRW Wheat for donation to Ethiopia and Yemen with bids due by Feb 10. Delivery of grain to ship is from Mar 5 to Apr 5 -- After growth in wheat prices of 60% from 2002 - 2008 and set by India's gov't, the vegoil industry there is seeking similar price hikes to encourage the nation's farmers to produce more oilseeds to reduce its dependence on imports -- Early poll of grain analysts for next Tuesday's USDA crop data, shows 09/10 Wheat ending stocks at 973 mln bu down from January's 976 mln. -- Possible Tender: Top Bangladesh grain official back on Friday Feb 5th said the week of Feb 8-12 the country would issue a 100,000 mt Wheat tender. -- Pending Tender: 40,900 mt Wheat tender was announced for Feb 11th by Taiwain flour mill group, acc to group official. The grain is sought off US PNW coast, they're looking at 23,200 mt DNS Wheat and 17,750 mt HRW-- Pending Tender: 70,000 mt Wheat tender for Feb 4 was issued by Bangladesh, acc. to gov't official. The officer also said bids must be valid until Feb 25 & the gov't expects shipment 60 days after deal is complete -- For the April/May delivery period, traders suggest 400,000 mt of Wheat could be bought by Bangladesh from Black Sea origins. -- Pending Tender: In a tender scheduled for February 19th, Japan's Ag Ministry is seeking 72,000 mt of food grade Wheat under SBS tender rules, acc. to officials at the ministry -- Liffe March milling wheat futures were unchanged at 125.00 euros/mt. -- Globex Wheat Vol. 101,436; Pit Vol. 6,936; Open Interest Change: + 2,917 -- Weather: 6 - 10 Day Forecast: Normal to Below Temps. Normal to Below Precip. -- Outside markets: Energy Complex +0.14 at $71.33; Gold & Silver: +12.5 at $1065.3 & +0.160 at $14.990; US $ -0.160 at $80.435
Cash Markets -- CIF SR Wheat steady : Feb. +28 to +?? Mar. +28 to +40 July +15