Tuesdays post USDA stocks and acreage report left soybeans higher in July and lower in New crop November again. July closed 11 ¼ cents higher and November soybeans closed 2 ½ cents lower. Beans were under pressure most of the session despite an acreage reduction well below analysts projections. The USDA estimated 2009 Soybean acreage at 77.48 mil acres vs. analyst projections of 78.3 mil acres. June 1 soybean stocks were 597 mil bu vs the average analyst estimate of 586 mil bu. Initially this report was viewed as supportive but with corn limit down traders said it really pressured soybeans. Volume on Tuesday was very heavy. Soybeans traded 170,812, Oil traded 127,601 and Meal 68,823. Funds were net sellers of an estimated 3,000 Soybeans, 2,000 Oil and bought 500 Meal.
Early opening call higher. Today Grain for the first time overnight grain trading was extended to 7:15 a.m. CST. Soybean market was firmer overnight and traders are beginning to express concerns with late planting and talk of hotter weather in the extended forecast. The current 6 to 10 day forecast calls for normal to above normal precip with normal to above normal temps. Extended forecasts by some call for much hotter drier conditions. Overnight Chinese Soybeans, Meal and oil futures closed higher
Early Opening Calls: Soybeans 15-20c higher; Meal $6-$7 Higher; Oil 80 to 100 pts Higher
Top News -- General Mills reported strong sales figures for their 4Q, sales rose 5%. Those strong sales helped the 4Q net income rise to $358.8 vs the year ago quarter $185.2 mln net income -- German based oil seed analyst group says large oil supplies in the domestic Indian market are prompting some importers to call for a halt to shipments during July after amassing some 700-800,000 mt at ports during June. -- Survey, conducted by reuters, of OPEC production says total cartel output in June rose by 180,000 bpd to 4.2 mln bpd or about 72% compliance with the cartel's production quota. This would be the second month over month rise in output -- Dalian Jan Soybeans up +45 yuan to settle at 3,690 yuan; Jan Meal up +72 yuan to 2,942 yuan; Jan Soy Oil up +100 yuan to 7,464 yuan. ($1=6.83 yuan) -- Malaysian Palm for Sept delivery rose 29 ringgit to settle at 2230 ringgit/mt -- LIFFE Aug Rapeseed up +2.75 euro to 292.75 euro/mt -- eCBOT Soybean Vol. 151,225; Pit Vol. 14,101; Open Interest Change: -4,421 -- Weather: 6-10 Day Forecast: Normal Temps. Normal to Above Precip. -- Outside markets. Energy +1.43 to 71.32; Gold & Silver: +10.9 to 938.3; US $ Slightly better than the yen and wekaer than the Euro
Cash Markets -- CIF Soybeans steady off 5. July +59 to +62, Aug. +75 to +85, Sept. +85 to +??, Oct. +67 to +74, Nov. +68 to +74, Dec. +67 to +72, Jan. +67 to +72
Nate Smith Linn Group 141 W. Jackson Blvd. Suite 1255A, Chicago, IL. 60604 Phone: (312) 896-2088 Fax: (312) 896-2052