Soybeans ended lower on Wednesday after a choppy session. After an evening session ended 19 cents higher the market broke down to its lowest values of the day in the first 2 hours of trading and recovered slightly into the close. A new potential hurricane Gustav took crude oil higher yesterday but the Soybean market shrugged off the higher energy markets which often influence trade in the oilseeds. Volume on Wednesday was heavy especially in the products. Soybeans traded 135,487, Meal traded 66,806 and Oil 67,593. Funds on Wednesday bought 1,000 Soybeans, 1,000 Oil and sold 1,000 Meal.
Early Opening calls are lower: The USDA released weekly export sales showing soybean sales at 143k mt above analyst estimates of 100 to 450k.mt., Meal sales were 76k mt within the range of estimates of 50 to 150k mt. and Oil sales came in below analyst expectations at a negative 19,000 due to cancelled purchases from China. Census crush was also released today showing July crush at 139.09 mil. bu below expecatations fo 140.4. Meal stocks were 294,505 tons below expectations of 354,000 tons and Oil stocks show 2.784 bil. lbs. below expectations fo 2.83 bil. lbs. Analysts say world biodiesel output forecast to grow by 10 to 12 percent annually from the present 9.85 bil liters as the U.S. and Argentina expand exports. Dry weather is expected to be a concern but some rain has been added to short and long term forecasts. Friday is 1st. notice day in September grains. Overnight Chinese Soybean, Meal and oil futures closed lower. Malaysian Palm oil futures closed lover.
Early Opening Calls: Soybeans 10-15c Lower; Meal $3 Lower; Oil 50 to 60 pts Lower
-- Harvesting of sunflower seeds begins in earnest as Ukraine farmers bring home 6,200 mt in the latest week. The country's ag ministry expects this year's crop at 5.0 mln mt up 0.8 mln mt from the prior year. -- The inspector general for the CFTC has launched an investigation, at the request of 4 US Senators, into allegations that the CFTC knowingly include seriously flawed data in a energy market manipulation report and the timing of the report was suspicious. -- Pending Action: Gov't official with Indonesia announced on Aug 21st, his country beginning Sept 1 will lower its export tax on crude palm oil to 10% from the current 15%. -- India's state trading arm announced Aug 22nd it was looking to purchase 14,000 mt of crude palm oil for import, they're also looking for 14,000 mt of refined palm olein. Bids must be received by Aug 26th & delivery is expected in Sept/Oct. -- Dalian Jan Soybeans fell 59 ending at 4,271; Soymeal was off 42 yuan & Soyoil for Jan delivery fell 180 ending trade at 9,002. -- Malaysian Palm Oil futures Nov contract was off 32 ringgit to settle at 2,503 ringgit ($739)mt. -- Globex Soybean Vol. 115,051; Pit Vol. 15,969; Open Interest Change: - 3,145 -- Weather: 6-10 Day Forecast: Above Normal Temps. Normal to below Precip. The Corn Belt will see scattered showers and thunderstorms move west to east today anf Friday. Saturday into Monday looks dry. Temps near normal. -- Outside markets: Energy Complex +1.88 at $118.15; Gold & Silver: +13.0 at $843.0 & +0.382 at $13.865; US $ is trading slightly lower vs. Yen & is trading lower vs. Euro.
Cash Markets
-- CIF Soybeans steady up 20. Aug. +85 to +95, FH Sept. +40 to +80, Sept. +33 to +50, Oct. +25 to +30, Nov. +32 to +36,Dec. +27 to +31, Jan. +32 to +40
Nate Smith Linn Group nsmith@linngroup.com toll free: (877) 787-6278 local: (312) 896-2090 fax: (312) 896-2052