Soybeans ended Tuesdays session 2 ½ cents lower in the November contract but well off the days lows. A choppy low volume session ended well off the lows and closed in the middle of the range. The dollar and crude oil were factors impacting the market. As the dollar firmed once again the bean complex in general weakened. Volume was light Soybeans traded 104,836, Meal 48,290 and Oil traded 55,862. Funds on Tuesday were net sellers of an estimated 2,000 Soybeans, 2,000 Meal and even in Oil.
Early Opening calls higher. Grain and oilseed markets rallied overnight due to higher energy prices and continued concerns over dry weather in parts of the corn belt. Energy markets are nervous about a new hurricane “Gustav” moving into the Gulf potentially taking aim at oil and natural gas installations there. Oil world forecasts Argentine 2009 soybean production to increase to 50.5 mmt. in 2009 from 47.5 in 2008. They estimate August soybean stocks to be at 26.5 mmt down from 27.1 mmt las year at this time. Talk that China has purchased 2 cargoes of soybeans out of the Pacific Northwest overnight. Overnight Chinese Soybeans and Meal closed higher. Oil lower. Malaysian Palm oil futures closed higher.
Top News -- As supply of vegoils catchs up with expected demand increases, prices of those inputs to biodiesel will become less volatile, meanwhile biodiesel demand is expected to grow in a range of 10-12% over then next few years for the current world output of 2.60 bln gallons, acc. to a report by FO Licht. -- An ag industry publication poll said farmers are not giving up corn acreage in 2009 and plan to plant 5% more soybean in 2009. The additional soybean acreage will come at the expense of winter wheat, acc. to Farm Futures commentary. -- Weather concerns Morgan Stanley analyst to keep 2008 corn and soybeans price estimate at $7. & $15, respectively -- Pending Action: Gov't official with Indonesia announced on Aug 21st, his country beginning Sept 1 will lower its export tax on crude palm oil to 10% from the current 15%. -- India's state trading arm announced Aug 22nd it was looking to purchase 14,000 mt of crude palm oil for import, they're also looking for 14,000 mt of refined palm olein. Bids must be received by Aug 26th & delivery is expected in Sept/Oct. -- Dalian January soybean futures ended Wednesday's session 88 higher at 4,330 yuan/mt on over 1.0 mln contracts traded; Soymeal for Jan delivery also had volume over 1.0 mln ending 94 higher; Soyoil backed off 16 yuan to 9,182 yuan/mt -- Malaysian Palm Oil futures Nov contract was up 93 ringgit at 2,502 ringgit ($739)mt -- Globex Soybean Vol. 90,637; Pit Vol. 11,947; Open Interest Change: - 5,948 -- Weather: 6-10 Day Forecast: Above Normal Temps. Normal to below Precip. The Corn Belt will see some showers today favoring the north and west. Thursday will see a few showers in the west. Friday into Sunday looks mostly dry. Temps near normal. -- Outside markets: Energy Complex +1.16 at $116.27; Gold & Silver: +6.8 at $830.9 & -0.052 at $13.516; US $ is trading slightly lower vs. Yen & is trading lower vs. Euro.
Cash Markets -- CIF Soybeans steady up 2. Aug. +85 to +95, FH Sept. +40 to +??, Sept. +32 to +50, Oct. +26 to +32, Nov. +32 to +36 Dec. +27 to +31, Jan. +32 to +40
Nate Smith Linn Group nsmith@linngroup.com toll free: (877) 787-6278 local: (312) 896-2090 fax: (312) 896-2052