Soybeans ended Monday’s session 20 cents higher. Traders say much of the strength in the soy complex stems from major concerns in crop development due to late planting and potential for an early frost. The fact that soybeans were planted so late they need good finishing weather one farmer said. If we have an early frost it will be problematic due to the fact that it still needs to finish the growing cycle which will need to go well into September. Lack of moisture is also an issue as expected weekend rains did not materialize and forecasts for additional rainfall in the future are spotty in the 6 to 10 day forecast. Volume on Monday was moderate. Soybeans traded 115,146 contracts, Meal 44,510 and Oil 58,532. funds on Monday bought 2,700 Soybeans, 1,000 Oil and 1,000 Meal.
Early opening calls lower: Overnight market ended down 36 cents despite forecasts for dry weather. Influencing the overnight markets are a sharply higher dollar which is up 52 into new contract highs. Talk of active buying by china of Argentine Soybeans Monday while at the same time rumors surfaced that they are canceling some U.S. Purchases. Yesterday after the close the USDA released crop conditions showing Soybeans rated 61% good to excellent vs. 62% last week, 55% last year and 55% average. The Argentine government announced $330 mil. in new Farm Subsidies. The 6 to 10 day forecast calls for above normal temperatures with normal to below normal precipitation. Most of the corn belt will be dry today with some extreme dryness. Overnight Chinese Soybeans, Meal and Oil all closed lower. Malaysian Palm Oil futures closed lower.
Early Opening Calls: Soybeans 30 to 35 cents lower. Meal $6.00 to $8.00 Lower. Oil 1.50 to 1.75 lower.
Top News -- USDA weekly soybean conditions table on Monday showed little shift: vp-poor category 12% vs prior week's 11%, fair category 27% vs 27% last week & combined good-exc categories were 61% vs 62% last week. -- USDA soybean progress report showed Blooming at 97% in latest week, year ago it was 99% & the long term average is 99%. -- USDA soybean progress report showed Setting Pods at 88% in latest week, year ago it was 95% & the long term average is 94%. -- German-based Oil World, raised its Argentine early 2009 soybean planting acreage estimate to 17.85 mln ha up from the 16.94 mln ha. The group also raised 2009 early harvest estimate to 50.5 mln mt that's 3.5 mln mt more than in early 2008 -- Dalian Soybean futures for Jan delivery settled 85 yuan lower at 4,242 yuan/mt; Soymeal down 56 in overnight trade to 3,603 yuan/mt; Jan soyoil continues lower off 290 yuan on Tuesday to 9,198 yuan/mt as traders note weak oil demand sentiment -- Nov palm oil futures in Malaysia overnight fell 115 ringgit to 2,485 ringgit/mt. They've lost nearly 8.8% in two days after comments by an industry analyst suggesting stockpiles would continue increasing into the 4th qtr -- Globex Soybean Vol. 101,972; Pit Vol. 11,216; Open Interest Change: + 3,681 -- Weather: 6-10 Day Forecast: Above Normal Temps. Normal to Below Precip. Most of the Corn Belt will be dry today. Some extreme southeast areas will see some showers today and Wednesday. Chance of showers west to east Thursday. Friday and Saturday dry. Temp normal. -- Outside markets: Energy Complex +0.52 at $115.11; Gold & Silver: -7.7 at $812.7 & -0.150 at $13.224; US $ is trading better vs. Yen & Euro.
Cash Markets -- CIF Soybeans steady. Aug. +80 to +100, FH Sept. +60 to +70, Sept. +30 to +50, Oct. +27 to +31, Nov. +32 to +35 Dec. +27 to +31, Jan. +33 to +40
Nate Smith Linn Group nsmith@linngroup.com toll free: (877) 787-6278 local: (312) 896-2090 fax: (312) 896-2052