Soybeans ended Thursday’s volatile session lower. July beans ended down 31 cents and new crop Nov ended only 13 ¾ cents lower as that spread narrowed 18 ¼ cents to its lowest level since September of 2007. Friendly soybean acreage estimates from Informa Economics could not rally the bean market, as rumors of a possible strike settlement in Argentina surfaced on the trading floor traders said. November Soybeans rallied back 33 ¼ cents from its lowest levels of the day with just 2 hours left in the session to close just 13 ¾ cents lower. Volume was much better than recent days. Soybeans traded 128,820, Meal 58,591 and oil 65,177. Funds on Thursday sold an estimated 6,000 Soybeans, 3,000 Oil and 2,000 Meal.
Early Opening call: Higher. Traders say calls are higher on news that Argentine farmers will extend their strike until May 21, likely bolstering demand for U.S. soy. This morning, the USDA reports a private sale of 253k tons of US-origin soybeans to China - delivery in 08/09 marketing year. Crude oil traded to record highs once again today adding support to veg oil markets. Traders say technically November Soybeans show upside potential and expect the market to be supported on Breaks. Overnight trade indicates a higher opening. Overnight Chinese Soybeans and Meal futures closed higher. Oil mixed. Malaysian Palm oil futures closed higher overnight.
Early Opening Calls: Soybeans 10-15 cents higher, Oil .40 to .80 higher. Meal $2.00 to $3.00.
Top News
-- 15,000 mt of Sunseed oil sought in May 22nd tender deadline by Egypt for delivery in FH July
-- Argentine farm union leader, Buzzi, suggested the nation's farmer will likely continue their strike. -- Informa Soybean Acreage May Estimate: 73.3 mln ac.; Apr report 71.3 mln ac, USDA estimate 74.8 mln ac -- Current 08/09 cotton acreage estimated at 9.1 mln acres acc. to Informa's May report, down from their prior estimate of 9.2 mln acres & lower than the USDA's 9.4 mln acres -- Thursday's USDA Soybeans 07/08 Export Sales Net: 201,400 mt; 08/09 Net: 300 mt; expected 100-250k mt -- Thursday's USDA Soybean Meal 07/08 Export Sales Net: 115,600 mt; 08/09 Export Sales Net: 1200 mt; expected 50-125k -- Thursday's USDA Soybean Oil 07/08 Export Sales Net: 10,800 mt; 08/09 Export Sales Net: NONE mt; expected 5-15k
-- Dalian Soybean Jan futures were 35 yuan better overnight at 4,499 yuan/mt. Sep Soymeal futures 28 yuan higher at 3,624 yuan/mt; Sept Soyoil off 28 yuan to 11,298 yuan/mt -- Malaysian Palm oil August futures contract were up 46 ringgit to 3,570 ringgit($1,104)m/t. -- Globex Soybean Vol. 108,248; Pit Vol. 16,506; Open Interest Change: - 1,113 -- Weather: 6-10 Day Forecast: Normal to Above Temps. Normal to Above Precip. The Corn Belt looks dry today. Saturday will see a few light showers favoring the northeast. Sunday and most of Monday looks dry. Light showers favoring the east late Monday. Tuesday looks mostly dry. Temps normal to below. -- Outside markets: Energy Complex +2.70 at $126.82; Gold & Silver: +14.8 at $894.7 & +0.275 at $16.955; US $ is trading slightly lower vs. Euro & is slightly better vs. Yen.
Cash Markets
-- CIF Soybeans steady up 5. May +12 to +15, June +20 to +25, July +30 to +35, Aug. ?? to +35, Sept. +15 to +22, Oct. +20 to +28, Nov. +20 to +28, Dec. +12 to +25.
Nate Smith Linn Group nsmith@linngroup.com toll free: (877) 787-6278 local: (312) 896-2090 fax: (312) 896-2052
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