Soybeans were weaker on Monday closing 18 ΒΌ cents lower in July. Traders say the break in beans was mostly on profit taking amid some forecasts for better crop weather behind the next line of storms. A potential settlement in the ongoing rift between Argentine Farmers and the Govt. had a negative effect on Monday but the on again off again conflict will continue to bear watching. Volume on Monday was light Soybeans traded 100,357, Meal 35,365 and Oil 41,741. Funds sold an estimated net 2,000 Soybeans, 1,000 Meal and 2,000 Oil.
Early Opening call higher. Yesterday after the close the USDA released the weekly crop progress report showing soybean planting at 5% complete vs. 8% last year and 14% average. More importantly Corn planting is only 27% complete vs. 45% last year and an average of 59%. Farmers say as a general rule of thumb if corn is not planted by May 15th. yields can fall roughly 1.4 bu per acre every day the field goes unplanted. This is causing concerns that farmers will switch corn plantings to soybeans. Argentine Farm groups are scheduled to meet with the government today and some Farmers say if no progress is made a full blown strike may return. Overnight Chinese Soybean, Meal and Oil futures closed higher. Malaysian Palm oil futures closed mostly weaker. 6 to 10 day forecast calls for below normal temps and normal to above normal precip.
Early Opening calls: Soybeans 10 to 12 cents higher, Meal $3.00 to $ 4.00 higher. Oil .40 to .60 higher.
Top News -- Dry weather could affect yield on late planted Argentine Soybeans, acc. to vegoil analyst Oil World. They say after 1/2 the harvest complete, there are some reports that yields are slightly falling & that could lower the group's overall harvest forecast to a range of 45-46 mln mt from as high as 48.7 mln mt. -- Argentine farmers & gov't will meet again on Tuesday to begin negotiations. -- Bloomberg is reporting that Argentine farmers will set up road blocks on May 7 that connect Brazil and Uraguay with Argentina after the government failed to repeal tax increases on soybeans. -- Australian Crop forecasters group pegged the upcoming Canola crop at 1.55 mln mt a rise of 43% from last year's drought hit crop. They also rasied its 08/09 Barley crop estimate to 9.54 mln mt, that's 57% above last year's output. The gov't ABARE group estimates Canola at 1.43 mln mt in 08/09. -- Monday's USDA weekly soybean plantings were estimated at 5% complete up 3% points from last week & are below last year's pace of 8% & 5 yr avg pace of 14% complete. -- Monday's USDA Weekly Soybean Inspections: 11.871 mln bu; expected 14.0 mln bu -- USDA attache says Malaysia's crude palm oil production rose 5.5 percent to 1.3 MMT in March. The increase in palm oil exports was more than the increase in palm oil output, resulting in a drop in carryout stocks at the end of March. CPO prices dipped after experiencing a roller-coaster ride in the month of April. As the oil palms recover strongly from biological stress, Post has revised CPO production to 17.4 MMT for 2007/08. -- CBOT May Soybean Delivery: 4 -- CBOT May Soybean Oil Delivery: 251 -- CBOT May Soybean Meal Delivery: 965 -- Dalian Soybean futures were mostly higher, Jan contract rose 46 yuan; Sept Soymeal futures were up 56 yuan to 3,442 yuan/mt; Sept Soyoil rose 80 yuan to 10,906 yuan/mt, most other soyoil contracts were higher also
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