Soybeans recovered on Friday rallying 33 ½ cents in July and 25 ¼ in November. For the week July beans lost 32 ½ cents. Bearish factors last week included delayed corn planting potentially increasing soybean acres as cool wet weather has prevented planting progress. The Argentine Farmer / Govt situation has been supportive to the Soy complex. The Argentine farmer coalition seems to have a problem getting everyone to agree. As new developments in this situation occur the Soybean market reacts. Volume on Friday was light Soybeans traded 93,806, Meal 39,441 and Oil 44, 374. Funds on Friday bought an estimated 2,000 Soybeans, 2,000 Oil and 1,000 Meal.
Early opening call higher. Weekly crop progress will be released this afternoon and all eyes will be on the corn planting progress which analysts expect to be 27% to 30% complete. What the report will not show is how much corn was planted in questionable conditions. It is too early to switch intended acres to soybeans farmers say despite the slow pace of corn planting. Expectations are for farmers to plant corn until they cannot get it done due to the large investments in nitrogen. Weekly commitment of traders report released Friday show Soybeans long 101,382 off 7143, Oil long 17,506 off 3,993 and Meal long 31,177 off 6,671. The Supplemental report shows index funds long 171,110 off 2,098 Oil long 74,639 off 2,029. The US$ is trading lower against most major currencies this morning. Overnight Malaysian Palm oil futures rose 1.5%. Chinese Soybeans and Meal higher. Oil lower
Opening call: Soybeans 3 to 5 higher, Meal .50 to $1.00 higher, Oil .50 to .75 higher.
Top News -- Argentine Farmers & gov't will continue talks about opening soybean exports; meanwhile farmers will continue to protest, but allow some soy trade deemed "essential". -- Beef export from Argentina have been formally normalized by gov't decree -- Minnesota ethanol project delayed due to permit delays, acc. to ethanol producer Poet -- CBOT Soybean Deliveries 64 thru 4/22/08 no stopper -- CBOT Soybean Oil Deliveries: 720 thru 5/1/08 no stopper -- CBOT Soybean Meal Deliveries: 1,033 thru 5/2/08 Bunge stopped 113 -- Dalian Jan Soybean futures rose 45 to settle at 4,099 yuan/mt; Sept Soymeal up 71 at 3,386 yuan/mt; active Sept Soyoil was unchanged at 10,826 yuan/mt while nearby soyoil was lower & deferreds were mainly higher -- July palm oil futures in Malaysia settled up 49 pts to 3,390 ringgits/mt, up from last week's 3 week low point -- Globex Soybean Vol. 76,423; Pit Vol. 16,243; Open Interest Change: - 2,248 -- Weather: 6-10 Day Forecast: Normal to Below Temps. Normal to Above Precip. The Corn Belt will be dry today. Tuesday into Thursday will see chances of scattered showers. Friday into Sunday looks dry. Temps normal to below. -- Outside markets: Energy Complex -0.09 at $116.23; Gold & Silver: +11.8 at $869.8 & +0.374 at $16.757; US $ is slightly lower vs. Yen & is trading lower vs. Euro.
Cash Markets -- CIF Soybeans steady off 3. May +17 to +22, LH May +20 to ??, June +?? to +40, July +40 to +42, Sept. +16 to +22, Oct. +16 to +19, Nov. +20 to +25
Nate Smith Linn Group nsmith@linngroup.com toll free: (877) 787-6278 local: (312) 896-2090 fax: (312) 896-2052
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