LinnGroup.com: Futures, Commodities and Research http://research.linngroup.com/feed/?cat=17 en-us Futures, Commodities and Research webmaster@linngroup.com Fri, 03 Feb 2012 08:43:44 -0600 Corn Commentary - Range Trade?? Fri, 03 Feb 2012 08:43:44 -0600 http://research.linngroup.com/lgp/research/44618.html http://research.linngroup.com/lgp/research/44618.html The corn market was slightly higher on Thursday in a relatively quiet day. The March contract closed up 1 and the December closed up about 2 cents, above the high of the day again. These settlements are based on the spreads and the March contract. The corn market opened lower, in line with the night close, trading almost 6 lower, but it recovered quickly and traded a couple higher in the first 30 minutes of the opening. The highs in corn were made in the first hour before corn settled into a range trade and was [...]

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The corn market was slightly higher on Thursday in a relatively quiet day. The March contract closed up 1 and the December closed up about 2 cents, above the high of the day again. These settlements are based on the spreads and the March contract. The corn market opened lower, in line with the night close, trading almost 6 lower, but it recovered quickly and traded a couple higher in the first 30 minutes of the opening. The highs in corn were made in the first hour before corn settled into a range trade and was relatively quiet the rest of the session. There wasn’t a lot of news yesterday, but good export sales helped support early weakness and will probably underpin the corn market for the time being. We saw sales to Japan and small sales to China which is leading some bulls to declare that they are nervous about supplies from So America so they are booking some US corn. There is some talk about the USDA underestimating exports for this year which could help cut into the carry out that was unexpectedly higher in the January report. The outside markets are supportive and we continue to get signs that the US economy is improving which would be positive for grains when there is a lack of new information. The volume was ok at 322,000 contracts and funds were small buyers.

Overnight, the corn market was higher again as the outside markets were supportive and we continue to hear talk about strong basis and the lack of corn coming to the market. The corn market was mixed with the March closing up slightly and the December closing down 1. The US$ was lower and stocks and crude were around unchanged. The soybeans and wheat were higher lending some support to corn. Since the grains closed, the US employment data was released and it was very positive pushing stocks and crude higher, but also the US$ higher. It will be interesting to see how grains react to the data with the outside markets giving a mixed message. The corn market seems to get in a range trade without much price direction. If you ask the question how much is corn up this week, you will probably get some big numbers, when actually corn is up only 3 cents based on last night’s close. When talking to clients and other analysts, most feel corn is going to go higher, or they want it to higher, but it might be tough this time of the year unless we get new information. The corn market will be called higher today and we will see if it wants to go after the highs from earlier in the week or is it going to find selling into the weekend.

GLOBEX Overnight Contract Last Net Change High Low Volume ZCH12 644^2 1^2 646^4 641^0 10181 ZCK12 650^2 0^6 652^6 647^6 3963 ZCN12 654^2 0^6 656^4 652^0 2574 ZCU12 600^4 -1^0 602^0 598^6 493

LaSalle Street News Early Opening Calls:

LaSalle Street News Top News **Stats Can Dec 31 Barley Stocks: 5.12 mln mt, -10.8% from yr ago level **Stats Can Dec 31 Oats Stocks: 2.03 mln mt, -14.0% from yr ago level

-- Korea Feed Assoc bought 105,000 mt of Corn in tenders on Friday. They purchased 55k mt of US corn from Itochu and 50k mt of opt. origin Corn from CJ Int'l, both reportedly done at $319.95/mt cif -- Cash sources also say S Korean Major Feed Mill Group bought 69,500 mt of optional origin corn for May delivery. They say Cargill sold the corn for $315.95/mt cif -- Taiwan's MIPA group was the reported buyer of 50k mt of Argentine Corn for LH March delivery. Cash sources say CJ Int'l sold the corn for $1.594 over May CBOT futures contract cif -- Russian gov't believed to have further delayed a verdict on the country's grain exports; they failed to issue a briefing that was supposed to be due this morning -- USDA Ag attaché in Argentina lowered their estimate for Corn production to 21.8 mln mt vs. the recent USDA outlook of 26.0 mln mt -- USDA Ag attaché in Argentina lowered their estimate for Soybean production to 46.5 mln mt vs. the USDA's outlook of 50.5 mln mt -- The Buenos Aires Grain exchange maintained their soybean and corn production forecast at 46.2 mln mt for soy and 22.0 mln mt for corn, the same as last week -- Buenos Aires Grain Exchange Feb 2nd report shows Corn planting at 96.7% complete versus last week's 95.0% complete, last year at this time 100% of the crop had been planted. They say 3.578 mln ha have been planted so far, out of the 3.70 mln expected. The exchange also maintained its 22.0 mln mt production estimate, the same as last week. -- Buenos Aires Grain Exchange Feb 2nd report shows 98.5% of the soybean crop has been planted, taking acreage to 18.56 mln ha out of the 18.85 mln ha expected -- Foreign trade ministry in Brazil pegs Jan 2012 Corn exports at 852,500 mt up from December's 814,300 mt and down from the year ago month's 1.03 mln mt -- Foreign trade ministry in Brazil pegs Jan 2012 Soyoil exports at 87,600 mt up from December's 75,400 mt and up from the year ago month's 75,100 mt -- Foreign trade ministry in Brazil pegs Jan 2012 Soymeal exports at 1.05 mln mt up from December's 0.979 mln mt and up from the year ago month's 0.954 mln mt -- Morgan Stanley commodity analysts see Argentina's corn production at 23 mln mt that's 3 mln mt below the USDA's current projection -- India's Farm Ministry estimated the country's Corn production in 11/12 at 31.60 mln mt -- Ukraine banned its grain rail cars from leaving the country. They say the halt is a temporary restriction in a bid to secure domestic shipments -- Weekly EU export data shows 62,500 mt of Corn were granted export licenses this week, while 37,000 mt of barley were granted export licenses -- Private analyst group, SovEcon, suggests January grain exports from Russia will be around 1.4 mln mt compared to earlier estimates of 1.5-2.0 mln mt -- Environmental groups opposed to biofuel production say the implementation of increased biofuel mandates across the EU will cost the bloc $166 billion over 8 years in higher food prices and other costs -- Diversified energy company Valero reported that their ethanol unit more than doubled its operating income yr/yr Oct-Dec of 2011, posting results of $181 mil vs. $70 mil last year -- Mississippi state legislature considering a bill that would require retailers to provide consumers the option of ethanol-free gasoline -- USDA is launching a pilot program to help rural borrowers refinance their mortgages to reduce their monthly payments, it will operate in 19 states for homeowners who have loans that were made or guaranteed by USDA Rural Development. -- Tyson Foods reported fiscal 1Q net income of $156 mln, 42 cents per share, on revenue of $8.3 bln. -- Pending Tender: Japan's Ag Ministry did issue another new SBS tender deadline of Feb 8th for 100,000 mt of feed wheat and 200,000 mt of feed barley -- Liffe Mar. Corn futures were up + .25 @ 207.50 Euros/mt. -- Dalian Sept. Corn Futures were up + 16 @ 2,348 yuan/mt. -- CBOT Corn Volume & Open Interest for February 2nd 2012 was 322,051; Open interest increased +1,197 to 1,245,897. -- CBOT Ethanol Volume & Open Interest for February 2nd 2012 was 1,167; Open Interest increased +277 to 10,969. -- Weather: 6 – 10 Day Forecast: Normal to Above Temps. Normal to Below Precip -- Outside markets. Crude Oil off -6c @ $96.30; Gold up $2.40@ $1761.40 ; Silver off 20c @ $33.97 ; US $ index off 6 pts @ 79.04

LaSalle Street News Cash Markets -- CIF Corn steady off 4. FH Feb. +67 to +74, Feb. +65 to +69, Mar. +62 to +64, A/M +58 to +61, J/J +59 to +61, Aug. +88 to +90 , OND +58 to +62

TREND:

CH still having tough time clearing 6.50 with farmer selling more active. It certainly shows with weaker basis structures all around. Bear spreads widened on the day with more index fund roll taking place. Resistance gets even heavier at 6.60 to 6.70 but should find good support at 6.30 to 6.25.

Please do not enter orders via email or a voicemail message. We cannot be responsible for orders left in this manner. Orders must be entered via direct communication (by telephone conversation or in-person contact) with a representative of our firm and confirmed accordingly at the time of order entry. Alternative investment products may entail leveraging, commodity trading and other speculative investment practices which involve substantial risk of loss. Alternative investment products may have no secondary or a limited secondary market for an investor’s interest. Alternative investment performance can be volatile. PAST RESULTS ARE NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. This message contains information which may be confidential or privileged and is intended only for the individual or entity named above. It is prohibited for anyone else to disclose, copy, distribute or use the contents of this message. This material and any views expressed herein are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an endorsement or inducement to invest. If you received this message in error, please notify us immediately via return email

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Corn Commentary - Fade The Rally's And The Break's?? Thu, 02 Feb 2012 09:16:30 -0600 http://research.linngroup.com/lgp/research/44591.html http://research.linngroup.com/lgp/research/44591.html The corn market closed slightly higher again on Thursday as it opened strong, but couldn’t hold the gains and the highs of the session were made in the opening minute of trade. The March contract closed up about 3 cents which was about 6 cents off the highs and the December closed up artificially high at 7 higher, settling above the highs of the day because of the spreads. The March contract opened higher trading up about 10 cents right on the opening and the market couldn’t hold the gains. The corn market was stronger all day, [...]

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The corn market closed slightly higher again on Thursday as it opened strong, but couldn’t hold the gains and the highs of the session were made in the opening minute of trade. The March contract closed up about 3 cents which was about 6 cents off the highs and the December closed up artificially high at 7 higher, settling above the highs of the day because of the spreads. The March contract opened higher trading up about 10 cents right on the opening and the market couldn’t hold the gains. The corn market was stronger all day, but seemed to drift lower, trading lower on the day after about 2 hrs into the trading day, but eventually it settled into a range of about 1-4 higher most the session. The corn market ran into farmer selling again at the 6.50 level again on Wednesday as the even money to positive basis in many parts of the country meant farmers didn’t need futures to trade over 6.50 to get the price they wanted. The export trade has picked up some in the last couple of weeks even with feed wheat out of Australia being cheaper than US corn. We have seen a lot of spreading the last couple of weeks which has pushed prices around and created volatility. The volume was ok at 311,000 contracts and funds were buyers of about 10,000 contracts.

Overnight, the corn market was lower and I don’t know of the exact reason why. The March and December contracts closed down about 6 cents off the lows of the session. The outside markets were a little negative and the weather forecast seems to be a non event with better rains this week. The weekly export sales this morning were in the upper end of the estimate which is positive as we have seen pretty good sales the last couple of weeks. The USDA also announced sales of 107,000 mt to Japan this morning. There were rumors of China being around the US for beans and possibly corn, but nothing substantiated yet. The corn market will be called to open about 4-6 lower a little better than where it closed last night as the US$ has rallied and the export sales were good. The weather in So America has switched to being crop friendly with rains happening more periodically, but this doesn’t seem to be getting any press, but mark my words, one day, the market will be down and the story will be better than expected production from So America. The corn market will remain in a two sided traded and remember, farmers need corn to remain at higher prices to set the insurance guarantee.

GLOBEX Overnight Contract Last Net Change High Low Volume ZCH12 635^6 -6^2 642^0 634^2 18509 ZCK12 641^6 -6^4 648^2 640^4 10233 ZCN12 646^4 -5^2 652^2 644^6 9308 ZCU12 592^2 -6^0 597^2 591^4 684

LaSalle Street News Early Opening Calls:

LaSalle Street News Top News **USDA Corn 11/12 Export Sales Net: 912,000 mt; 12/13 Net: 63,000 mt; expected 700k-950k mt

-- Cash sources say Columbia Grain sold 23,000 mt of Corn to Taiwan Sugar Corp on Thursday. Price for half the volume was $303.60/mt cif while the other half was $1.255/bu over May CBOT futures. -- Top official at China's rural affairs group says in spite of Corn imports, China is not suffering from shortages in the local markets -- USDA ag attaché in Mexico lowered the estimate for Mexico’s 2011/12 Corn production to 18.4 mln mt vs. the previous estimate of 20.5 mln mt -- USDA ag attaché to Mexico sees Corn imports now at 10.5 mln mt up 700,000 mt over the previous estimate -- Ag consultant ProAgro forecast the Ukraine 2012 Wheat crop at 14.5 mln mt vs. last year’s production of 22.3 mln mt, they see the country's Corn production at 17.7 mln mt vs. 22.7 mln last year. -- USDA attaché to S Africa now estimates that country's 11/12 corn output at 11.5 mln mt on drier weather during the growing season. The post estimates 2.15 mln mt of corn have been exported so far, but sees 10/11 MY total exports only at 2.4 mln mt -- CMEGroup announced 4Q results, noting revenue during the quarter was $736 mln while net income on a per share basis was $11.25/shr and $3.55/shr excluding particular line items -- CMEGroup said in today's earning release that January 2012 average daily volume (adv) was 11.6 mln contract/day, a rise of 21% over the year ago month -- Pending Tender: In a Feb 2nd deadline Jordan is seeking 100,000 mt of feed Barley from optional origins. -- Pending Tender: Japan's Ag Ministry did issue another new SBS tender deadline of Feb 8th for 100,000 mt of feed wheat and 200,000 mt of feed barley -- Dalian Sept. Corn futures were down - 2 @ 2,332 yuan/mt. -- Liffe Mar. Corn futures were down - 1.75 @ 207.00 euros/mt. -- CBOT Corn Volume & Open Interest for February 1st 2012 was 311,966; Open interest increased +9,811 to 1,245,352. -- CBOT Ethanol Volume & Open Interest for February 1st 2012 was 589; Open Interest increased +84 to 10,692. -- Weather: 6 – 10 Day Forecast: Normal to Above Temps. Normal to Below Precip -- Outside markets. Crude Oil off -91c @ $96.70; Gold off -$1.60 @ $1748.10 ; Silver off -17c @ $33.63 ; US $ index up 22 pts @ 79.27

LaSalle Street News Cash Markets -- CIF Corn steady off 2. FH Feb. +71 to +74, Feb. +67 to +71, Mar. +63 to +65, A/M +59 to +61, J/J +60 to +61, Aug. +88 to +90 , OND +58 to +60

TREND:

Same trade for CH is 6.46 highs of last week. Clearing that still leaves a lot of resistance at 6.60 to 6.70.

Please do not enter orders via email or a voicemail message. We cannot be responsible for orders left in this manner. Orders must be entered via direct communication (by telephone conversation or in-person contact) with a representative of our firm and confirmed accordingly at the time of order entry. Alternative investment products may entail leveraging, commodity trading and other speculative investment practices which involve substantial risk of loss. Alternative investment products may have no secondary or a limited secondary market for an investor’s interest. Alternative investment performance can be volatile. PAST RESULTS ARE NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. This message contains information which may be confidential or privileged and is intended only for the individual or entity named above. It is prohibited for anyone else to disclose, copy, distribute or use the contents of this message. This material and any views expressed herein are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an endorsement or inducement to invest. If you received this message in error, please notify us immediately via return email

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Thursday Morning Soybean Update Thu, 02 Feb 2012 09:08:33 -0600 http://research.linngroup.com/lgp/research/44590.html http://research.linngroup.com/lgp/research/44590.html Soybean closed 16 1/4 cents higher on Wednesday. Talk yesterday that China had purchased 2 cargoes of beans and more during the week caught traders attention. Reports of improved margins in China is lifting bean prices. This has improved South American bean basis. Analysts continue to downgrade the output of Soybeans in South America. Volume on Wednesday was moderate. Soybeans traded 185,309, Meal 50,203, Oil 96,173.

Opening Call Lower. Weekly export sales released this morning are at the low end of expectations. Soybean sales were 308,400 mt old and 60,000 new vs. expectations of 350k to [...]

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Soybean closed 16 1/4 cents higher on Wednesday. Talk yesterday that China had purchased 2 cargoes of beans and more during the week caught traders attention. Reports of improved margins in China is lifting bean prices. This has improved South American bean basis. Analysts continue to downgrade the output of Soybeans in South America. Volume on Wednesday was moderate. Soybeans traded 185,309, Meal 50,203, Oil 96,173.

Opening Call Lower. Weekly export sales released this morning are at the low end of expectations. Soybean sales were 308,400 mt old and 60,000 new vs. expectations of 350k to 550k. Oil sales were 6,700 old vs. expectations of 0-10k Meal sales were 74,700 below estimates of 75-150k. China's Ministry of Commerce reported China's January Soybean imports were 5.29 mmt. vs. 5.42 mmt in December. They estimate February imports to be 2.67 mmt. Argentina's Rosario Grain Exchange says recent rains were not sufficient and says some yield losses are irreversible. They did say however there is still time for Soybeans to rebound Brazil crushing association Abiove lowered their estimate for Brazil 2011/12 Soybean production to 71.9 mmt vs. the previous estimate of 74.6. They expect exports to fall to 33 mmt vs. 34 mmt last year. Outside markets are neutral. $USD is 4 higher equities unchanged to higher and Crude oil is .75 cents lower.

Opening Call Beans 6-8 lower, Oil .30 to .40 lower Meal $1.00 to $2.00 lower.

Top News **USDA Soybeans 11/12 Export Sales Net: 308,400 mt; 12/13 Net: 60,000 mln mt; expected 350k-550k mt **USDA Soybean Meal 11/12 Export Sales Net: 74,700 mt; 12/13 Export Sales Net: NONE mt; expected 75k-150k mt **USDA Soybean Oil 11/12 Export Sales Net: 6,700 mt; 12/13 Export Sales Net: NONE mt; expected 0k-10k mt

-- Cash traders say Columbia Grain sold 12,000 mt of Soybeans to Taiwan Sugar Corp on Thursday. Price for half the volume was $494.19/mt cif while the other half was $1.36/bu over May CBOT futures. -- Oilseed industry officials say the Chinese Vice President will visit the US in February and say he'll likely sign a deal for soybean imports, however they expect the volume signed will not be as large as last year's 11.5 mln mt deal. -- Trader say 60,000 mt of Brazil soybeans were purchased by Taiwan's BSPA group on Thursday, price was a reported $2.01/bu over May CBOT futures contract. Shipment is expected between March 1-20 -- China's Commerce Ministry estimated January soybean imports at 5.29 mln mt that compares to December's 5.42 mln mt of soybean arrivals. -- China's Commerce Ministry estimated February soybean imports at 2.67 mln mt, acc. to reuters citing a Jan 19 document posted on the ministry's website. -- Rosario Grain Exchange say recent Argie rains weren’t sufficient and recovery of the Soy crop has been complicated. However, they noted there is still time for Soybeans to rebound, some yield losses are irreversible and many fields show low pod counts. -- Abiove of Brazil estimates the 11/12 soy crop at 71.9 mln mt down -2.7 mln mt from their early January estimate -- Abiove of Brazil forecasts the Feb 12/Jan 13 soy export volume at 33 mln mt down from their early January estimate of 34 mln mt -- Trade Ministry in Brazil pegs January Soybean exports at 1.01 mln mt vs 1.47 mln mt in December -- Int'l Cotton Advisory group expects next marketing year worldwide cotton stockpiles rising to 12.9 mln mt up 4.9% from the prior year 12.3 mln mt carry over stocks. -- Int'l Cotton Advisory group sees 12/13 worldwide cotton production at 24.9 mln mt down from the 11/12 crop of 26.8 mln mt on lower prices prompting farmers to switch to other field crops -- CMEGroup announced 4Q results, noting revenue during the quarter was $736 mln while net income on a per share basis was $11.25/shr and $3.55/shr excluding particular line items -- CMEGroup said in today's earning release that January 2012 average daily volume (adv) was 11.6 mln contract/day, a rise of 21% over the year ago month -- Dalian Sept. Soybean futures were up + 29 @ 4,405 yuan/mt., Sept. Soymeal was up + 12 @ 2,980 yuan/mt. -- Dalian Sept. Palm Oil futures were up + 58 @ 8,078 yuan/mt., Sept. Soyoil was up + 4 @ 9,088 yuan/mt. -- In Malaysia Apr Crude Palm Oil was down - 22 @ 3,056 ringgit./mt., range on the day was 3,110 to 3,036. -- Liffe May Rapeseed futures were down - 1.75 @ 446.75 euros/mt. -- CBOT Soybean Volume & Open Interest for February 1st 2012 was 185,309; Open Interest increased +3,427 to 504,019. -- CBOT Soybean Oil Volume & Open Interest for February 1st 2012 was 96,173; Open Interest decreased -969 to 325,295. -- CBOT Soybean Meal Volume & Open Interest for February 1st 2012 was 50,203; Open Interest decreased -2,188 to 200,162. -- Weather: 6 – 10 Day Forecast: Normal to Above Temps. Normal to Below Precip -- Outside markets. Crude Oil off -91c @ $96.70; Gold off -$1.60 @ $1748.10 ; Silver off -17c @ $33.63 ; US $ index up 22 pts @ 79.27

Cash Markets -- CIF Soybeans up 1 to 2. Jan. +80 to +88, FH Feb. +77 to +??, Feb. +75 to +85, Mar. +70 to +75, Apr. +62 to +68, May +62 to +68, June/July +58 to +??, Aug. +60 to +??

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Wednesday Morning Soybean Update Wed, 01 Feb 2012 09:01:43 -0600 http://research.linngroup.com/lgp/research/44562.html http://research.linngroup.com/lgp/research/44562.html Soybean prices ended firm on Tuesday up 13 3/4 cents. Production analysts keep telling us the crop in South America is getting smaller. Oilseed analyst Oil World lowered their estimate for Brazil Soybean production to 70.0 mmt vs. their previous estimate of 72.0 mmt. Argentine Soybean production was dropped to 46.5 mmt vs. the previous estimate of 48.5. mmt. Counter to these yield reductions are improving weather conditions in South America that could surprise some analysts as some are reporting improvements after the recent crop stress. Volume on Tuesday was moderate. Soybeans traded 188,253, Meal 52,594 and [...]

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Soybean prices ended firm on Tuesday up 13 3/4 cents. Production analysts keep telling us the crop in South America is getting smaller. Oilseed analyst Oil World lowered their estimate for Brazil Soybean production to 70.0 mmt vs. their previous estimate of 72.0 mmt. Argentine Soybean production was dropped to 46.5 mmt vs. the previous estimate of 48.5. mmt. Counter to these yield reductions are improving weather conditions in South America that could surprise some analysts as some are reporting improvements after the recent crop stress. Volume on Tuesday was moderate. Soybeans traded 188,253, Meal 52,594 and Oil traded 78,521.

Opening Call higher. This morning the USDA reports the private sale of 120,000 MT of US soybeans to China for 2011/12 marketing year. China's National Grain and Oil Information Center says China will likely add more thatn 12 mmt of Soybean Crushing capacity in 2012. This is in addition to the 15 mmt of crushing capacity China added in 2011. Weather continues to improve in South America. Near term forecasts call more rain in Argentina and Brazil through the weekend. Outside markets are supportive this morning $USD is trading 46 lower, Dow 100 pts higher, Crude oil .40 higher.

Opening Call: Soybeans 8-10 higher, Oil .30 -.40 higher Meal 1.00 to 2.00 higher.

Top News -- Adding to last year's 15 mln mt additional crushing capacity, China's NGOIC says the country will expand total oilseed crush capacity by up to another 15 mln mt in 2012 (12 mln in soy and 3 mln in canola) -- Yesterday AgroConsult, a private analyst group, pegs the 11/12 Corn crop in Argentina at 18.8 mln mt and the 11/12 Argentina Soy crop at 45 mln mt -- Brazilian business newspaper reported the Brazilian gov't is looking to create new futures contracts that cover commodities for export, such as cotton & sugar for the Bovespa exchange or create a new exchange for the products -- USDA expected to announce CRP enrollment period today, as 6.5 mln acres expected to expire this Sep. -- CFTC commissioner says organization has focused too much on new swap rules, and not enough on restoring market confidence & futures protection following MFG's collapse -- CFTC expected to begin review of ‘high frequency/algorithmic’ futures trading -- Platts report citing biofuel industry source in Argentina says the country will increase its biodiesel blend rate to 10% in 2012 as the country looks to broaden its use in the ag sector, mass transit and power gen sectors. The head of the country's biofuel association sees capacity rising in 2012 and doesn't expect rising local consumption to affect exports because they have sufficient capacity. -- Pending Tender: Cash merchandisers say the state run trading corp of Bangladesh is seeking 4,000 mt of Soyoil in a Jan 19th tender deadline -- Dalian Sept. Soybean futures were up + 70 @ 4,376 yuan/mt., Sept. Soymeal up + 28 @ 2,968 yuan/mt. -- Dalian Sept. Palm Oil futures were up + 50 @ 8,020 yuan/mt., Sept. Soymeal up + 54 @ 9,044 yuan/mt. -- Liffe May Rapeseed futures were up + 3.00 @ 447.00 euros/mt. -- CBOT Soybean Volume & Open Interest for January 31st 2012 was 188,253; Open Interest increased +6,058 to 500,600. -- CBOT Soybean Oil Volume & Open Interest for January 31st 2012 was 78,521; Open Interest increased +5,079 to 326,213. -- CBOT Soybean Meal Volume & Open Interest for January 31st 2012 was 52,594; Open Interest decreased -431 to 202,258. -- Weather: 6 – 10 Day Forecast: Normal to Above Temps. Normal to Below Precip -- Outside markets. Crude Oil up 36c @ $99.21; Gold up+$7.20 @ $1745.00 ; Silver up 55c @ 33.18$ ; US $ index off -46 pts @ 78.95

Cash Markets -- CIF Soybeans up 1 to 3. Jan. +79 to +??, FH Feb. +75 to +??, Feb. +73 to +??, Mar. +70 to +75 Apr. +62 to +??, May +60 to +??, June/July +60 to +??, Aug. +60 to +??

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Tuesday Morning Soybean Update Tue, 31 Jan 2012 09:00:14 -0600 http://research.linngroup.com/lgp/research/44529.html http://research.linngroup.com/lgp/research/44529.html Soybean prices retreated sharply on Monday closing down 33 3/4 cents. Abundant rainfall in South West Brazil and Argentina this week, a stronger dollar and farmer selling all had a hand in the break. Volume on Tuesday was much improved over recent sessions. Soybeans traded 179,692, Oil 102,288 and Meal 53,970. Funds were net sellers of an estimated 12,000 Soybeans, 4,500 Oil and 2,500 Meal.

Opening call higher. Oilseed analyst Oil world cut its forecast of 2012 soybean crops in Argentina and Brazil by a combined 4.0 mmt due to drought in key growing areas of those countries. Brazil grain [...]

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Soybean prices retreated sharply on Monday closing down 33 3/4 cents. Abundant rainfall in South West Brazil and Argentina this week, a stronger dollar and farmer selling all had a hand in the break. Volume on Tuesday was much improved over recent sessions. Soybeans traded 179,692, Oil 102,288 and Meal 53,970. Funds were net sellers of an estimated 12,000 Soybeans, 4,500 Oil and 2,500 Meal.

Opening call higher. Oilseed analyst Oil world cut its forecast of 2012 soybean crops in Argentina and Brazil by a combined 4.0 mmt due to drought in key growing areas of those countries. Brazil grain analyst Celeres estimates Brazil Soybean harvest is 3% complete vs. 2% complete vs. 2% last year at this time. Harvest in Mato Grosso is extimated at 6% complete. Rumors continue to surface regarding a potential export duty being imposed by Russia on grain exports. Today the head of Russia's Grain Union says the Russian government may charge an export duty on grain shipments starting in April. Oilseed analysts from Oil world speaking to a group in Florida predicted the food vs. fuel debate would resurface this time in regards to oilseed production. They cite an expected 2% increase in imports to China and India. In addition to this US Biodiesel production jumped 43% recently. Outside markets are supportive. $USD is trading lower, Equities higher and Crude oil is up over $1.90.

Opening call: Soybeans 3-5 higher, Oil .30 to .40 higher, Meal $1.00 to $2.00 higher.

Top News -- In a tender that closed Tuesday, Meditrade of Egypt bought a total of 38,000 mt of sunseed oil, acc. to traders. They say Glencore sold 12,000 mt, Dreyfus sold 11,000 mt and Nidera sold 15,000 mt all for $1,118.99/mt cif -- ADM in their earnings report today suggested worldwide soybean stockpiles will remain adequate despite Latam drought as harvest potential remains adequate -- Celeres estimates 49% of the 11/12 Soybean crop was forward sold up 2 percentage points from last week -- Celeres says the central western regions have soy harvest picking up, they estimate as of Jan 27th 3% of all soy area has been harvested compared to the 1% last week and the 2% harvest in the year ago week. Mato Grasso harvest is estimated 6% along and Parana 4% complete. -- ADM reported 2Q fiscal net income of $80 mln or 12c/share on revenue during the quarter at $23.3 bln -- ADM's corn processing unit's 2Q operating profits were $133 mln, while its soy processing unit's 2Q operating profits were $253 mln, and its ag services unit's 2Q operating profits were $158 mln -- Monday's USDA Weekly Soybean Inspections: 41.503 mln bu for w/e Jan 26 ; expected 28.0 mln bu -- Pending Tender: Cash merchandisers say the state run trading corp of Bangladesh is seeking 4,000 mt of Soyoil in a Jan 19th tender deadline -- Dalian Sept. Soybean futures were down - 20 @ 4,306 yuan/mt., Sept. Soymeal was down - 15 @ 2,940 yuan/mt. -- Dalian Sept. Palm Oil futures were down - 78 @ 7,970 yuan/mt., Sept. Soyoil was down - 78 @ 8,990 yuan/mt. -- In Malaysia Apr. Palm Oil futures were down- 4 @ 3,078 ringgit/mt. range on the day was 3,085 to 3,044. -- Crude Palm Oil cash Markets in Malaysia had no trades, went out bid 3,080.00 offered 3,090.00 ringgit. -- In Malaysia Feb. delivery of Palm Olein was quoted @ 1,057.50 ringgit/mt. Feb. Palm Oil went out offered @ 1,040.00 ringgit/mt. -- Liffe Feb. Rapeseed futures were up + 3.50 @ 471.50 euros/mt. -- CBOT Soybean Volume & Open Interest for January 30th 2012 was 179,692; Open Interest increased +15,141 to 494,563. -- CBOT Soybean Oil Volume & Open Interest for January 30th 2012 was 102,288; Open Interest increased +7,340 to 321,098. -- CBOT Soybean Meal Volume & Open Interest for January 30th 2012 was 53,970; Open Interest decreased -258 to 202,442. -- Weather: 6 – 10 Day Forecast: Normal to Above Temps. Below Normal Precip -- Outside markets. Crude Oil up $1.27 @ $100.05; Gold up $9.10 @ $1743.50 ; Silver up 10c @ $33.63 ; US $ index off -28 pts @ 79.02

Cash Markets -- CIF Soybeans steady up 2. Jan. +78 to +??, FH Feb. +74 to +??, Feb. +72 to +78, Mar. +67 to +70 A/M +56 to +61, June +56 to +60, July +56 to +??, Aug. +?? to +??

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Corn Commentary - Range Trade Reigns? Tue, 31 Jan 2012 08:54:19 -0600 http://research.linngroup.com/lgp/research/44525.html http://research.linngroup.com/lgp/research/44525.html The corn market was lower for the first time in 7 days as corn wasn’t able to recover after the initial sell off. The March contract closed down about 9 cents and the December was down about 6 cents, both off the lows of the session made earlier in the day. The March contract opened about 8 lower and traded as much as almost 14 lower before recovering and trading back up to where it opened. The corn market then was unable to make new highs and settled back into a narrow trading range of 8-10 lower. [...]

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The corn market was lower for the first time in 7 days as corn wasn’t able to recover after the initial sell off. The March contract closed down about 9 cents and the December was down about 6 cents, both off the lows of the session made earlier in the day. The March contract opened about 8 lower and traded as much as almost 14 lower before recovering and trading back up to where it opened. The corn market then was unable to make new highs and settled back into a narrow trading range of 8-10 lower. The corn market did try to rally around noon, but it was unable to gain any momentum after making new highs and settled back into the range of 8-10 lower and that is where it settled. The December contract didn’t break as hard as the old crop as traders liquidated the bull spreads which have dominated the trade the laws couple of weeks. The outside markets were negative, especially with the rally in the US$. There was general selling across all the grain markets, especially the soybeans which will benefit from the late rains which fell across most of Argentina and parts of Brazil over the weekend. The weather becomes less and less important, but rain makes grain, even when it is late. The volume was ok at 252,000 contracts and funds were sellers of 15,000 contracts.

Overnight, the market was higher, taking back most of the losses from yesterday as the outside markets have improved and there is more talk about possible tariff’s on exports out of Ukraine. The March contract closed up about 7 cents and the December was up about 5 cents, both slightly off the highs of the night session. The buying overnight was probably tied to more talk about Ukraine putting tariff’s on exports beginning in April. The latest rumors may have some truth to it because it is government officials talking about it and not just some analysts. Now, does this have a huge affect on the US markets, maybe not, but it might be enough to stop aggressive selling. The weaker US$ is probably going to help support the commodity markets and we are seeing that across all the commodity markets today. With the selloff yesterday, we are bound to see a bounce today and corn has the best bull story. Corn is probably in a range trade right now until we get more information about the crops in So America or until we get closer to planting here in the US. Remember, tomorrow is February 1st and this begins the spring price guarantee for insurance, so that could influence traders.

GLOBEX Overnight Contract Last Net Change High Low Volume ZCH12 639^2 7^4 642^0 631^0 12800 ZCK12 645^0 7^2 647^6 637^2 3240 ZCN12 648^4 7^2 651^0 640^6 3873 ZCU12 593^0 5^6 596^0 587^2 555

LaSalle Street News Early Opening Calls:

LaSalle Street News Top News -- Cash grain merchandisers say a total 165,000 mt of Corn and 165,000 mt Sorghum has been purchased recently by Japan from Argentina for delivery over the April - June period -- Top grain traders say up to 1.5 mln mt of EU feed corn has been purchased by Japan for their Jan-March needs, saying that's the largest purchase during any quarter by the Japanese of EU grains -- Traders also say Japan is looking to buy up to 1.0 mln mt of feed Corn from the US for the January to March period, acc. to dow headline. -- China's state grain admin says the country will release more grain futures for trading by 2015, but didn't reveal which contracts will be released. Traders suggest it will likely be hog/pork contracts and rice futures -- Ukraine farms ministry has proposed to remove the VAT on corn seed imports until May 1 in move to lower prices and expand the use of corn after drought hit the winter wheat crop -- Italy's stats bureau pegs 2011 Corn production at 9.79 mln mt up from their prior estimate of 9.58 mln mt on better yields -- ADM reported 2Q fiscal net income of $80 mln or 12c/share on revenue during the quarter at $23.3 bln -- ADM's corn processing unit's 2Q operating profits were $133 mln, while its soy processing unit's 2Q operating profits were $253 mln, and its ag services unit's 2Q operating profits were $158 mln -- Monday's USDA Weekly Corn Inspections: 22.690 mln bu for w/e Jan 26 ; expected 31.0 mln bu -- Pending Tender: A gov't official in Japan announced a new SBS tender that wraps up on Feb 1st, they're seeking 100,000 mt of feed Wheat and 200,000 mt of feed Barley for shipment by May 31 -- Pending Tender: In a Feb 2nd deadline Jordan is seeking 100,000 mt of feed Barley from optional origins. -- Dalian Sept. Corn futures were up + 11 @ 2,332 yuan/mt. -- Liffe Mar Corn futures were up + 3.25 @ 207.50 euros/mt. -- CBOT Corn Volume & Open Interest for January 30th 2012 was 252,555; Open interest increased +1,080 to 1,225,023. -- CBOT Ethanol Volume & Open Interest for January 30th 2012 was 616; Open Interest increased +126 to 10,400. -- Weather: 6 – 10 Day Forecast: Normal to Above Temps. Below Normal Precip -- Outside markets. Crude Oil up $1.27 @ $100.05; Gold up $9.10 @ $1743.50 ; Silver up 10c @ $33.63 ; US $ index off -28 pts @ 79.02

LaSalle Street News Cash Markets -- CIF Corn steady off 3. Jan. +72 to +74, Feb. +67 to +73, Mar. +63 to +65, A/M +59 to +61, J/J +61 to +62, Aug. +88 to +?? , OND +57 to +60

TREND: Corn seemed to be the market caught in the middle of today’s price action in grains. Found scale up selling on rallies and could not follow the strength in wheat, and found modest buying below 6.30 in the March on breaks and was unable to be influenced by the setback in beans. Support now rests at 6.15 and a settle below this level may be enough to potentially drop prices to the 5.95-5.90 range. We will now need a settle above last weeks’ highs of 6.45 ¾ before thinking about a test of the January’s highs.

Please do not enter orders via email or a voicemail message. We cannot be responsible for orders left in this manner. Orders must be entered via direct communication (by telephone conversation or in-person contact) with a representative of our firm and confirmed accordingly at the time of order entry. Alternative investment products may entail leveraging, commodity trading and other speculative investment practices which involve substantial risk of loss. Alternative investment products may have no secondary or a limited secondary market for an investor’s interest. Alternative investment performance can be volatile. PAST RESULTS ARE NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. This message contains information which may be confidential or privileged and is intended only for the individual or entity named above. It is prohibited for anyone else to disclose, copy, distribute or use the contents of this message. This material and any views expressed herein are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an endorsement or inducement to invest. If you received this message in error, please notify us immediately via return email

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Corn Commentary - Will Buying Appear Again? Mon, 30 Jan 2012 09:57:29 -0600 http://research.linngroup.com/lgp/research/44501.html http://research.linngroup.com/lgp/research/44501.html The corn market closed higher on Friday, again, with the March closing about 7 higher and the December up about 5 cents, both near the highs of the session. The corn market opened higher and traded in a range of 3-5 higher before selling pushed corn lower, trading lower on the day and the lows of the day were tested a couple of times. The corn market was finally able to find support and after trading higher on the day, corn pushed up to about 5 higher and then into new highs. It remained strong, but leaked lower [...]

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The corn market closed higher on Friday, again, with the March closing about 7 higher and the December up about 5 cents, both near the highs of the session. The corn market opened higher and traded in a range of 3-5 higher before selling pushed corn lower, trading lower on the day and the lows of the day were tested a couple of times. The corn market was finally able to find support and after trading higher on the day, corn pushed up to about 5 higher and then into new highs. It remained strong, but leaked lower until a late push in the final minutes rallied it 3 cents up to where it closed. There was a lot of spreading on Friday, with corn/wheat and corn/beans both being big trades. The better rains in So America will help the soybeans much more than the corn, so some traders are trying to play that spread. The weather in So America is starting to become old news as the season starts to wind down, just like it does here in the US after the middle of August. There has been a pickup in export demand, but we will see if that continues with the higher prices. The outside markets were positive for grains, especially the US$ which was lower again on Friday. The corn market has been higher for the last 7 days. The volume was on the light side at 237,000 and funds were buyers of about 10,000 contracts.

Overnight, the corn market started around unchanged, but moved lower during the night session and eventually closed about 7 lower in the March and 4 lower in the December. The rains seemed to be a little better than expected in Argentina and they are supposed to get rains this week that supposedly will relieve most of the dryness. The outside markets are negative for grains with a higher US$ and lower stocks and crude oil. There is isn’t a lot of news this time of the year so traders seem to focus on outside market, weather in So America is winding down and traders starting to look at planted acres. There is still a lot of talk about stocks and that the USDA will have to adjust their numbers later this year because they are wrong. We will also have to await to see if the exports continue to be good as the prices have gone higher. The corn market will be called lower this morning inline with the overnight closes.

GLOBEX Overnight Contract Last Net Change High Low Volume ZCH12 634^0 -7^6 642^6 633^0 14047 ZCK12 640^0 -7^4 648^0 638^4 2171 ZCN12 643^6 -7^2 651^6 642^2 3312 ZCU12 589^4 -4^4 594^2 589^4 343

LaSalle Street News Early Opening Calls:

LaSalle Street News Top News -- A poll of grain analysts peg the average Corn price estimate on December 31 2012 at $5.47 vs. $6.47 on December 31 2011, meanwhile Soybean avg price at end of 2012 is seen at $11.47 down from Dec 31, 2011 - $11.99, acc. to reuters poll -- Cold temps hindering rail grain loading in interior Ukraine regions while snow and high winds are hampering port terminal loadings, acc. to local reports -- According to traders familiar with Lanworth Latin American production estimates on Friday, said the firm pegs Argentina's soybeans at 44.5 mln mt and that compares to the Buenos Aires Grain exchange estimate yesterday at 46.2 mln mt. Lanworth's Brazil's production was said to be 68.5 mln mt -- Traders on Friday also said Lanworth Latin American production estimate pegs Argentina's corn crop at 20.8 mln mt that compares to the Buenos Aires Grain exchange estimate of 22.0 mlnt; Lanworth's Brazil corn production was said to be at 60.1 mln mt -- The Feb 13th launch of OTC Ag swap futures has been delayed due to lack of approval from the CFTC, acc. to CMEGroup. -- CFTC Commitment of Traders data on Friday showed small Managed Money (large discretionary fund) selling in the grains (wheat/corn) through 1/24, but small buying in soybeans and soy meal -- Pending Tender: A gov't official in Japan announced a new SBS tender that wraps up on Feb 1st, they're seeking 100,000 mt of feed Wheat and 200,000 mt of feed Barley for shipment by May 31 -- Pending Tender: In a Feb 2nd deadline Jordan is seeking 100,000 mt of feed Barley from optional origins. -- Dalian Sept. Corn futures were up + 20 @ 2,321 yuan/mt. -- Liffe Mar. Corn futures were up +.75 @ 205.00 euros/mt. -- CBOT Corn Volume & Open Interest for January 27th 2012 was 237,427; Open interest increased +5,455 to 1,227,367. -- CBOT Ethanol Volume & Open Interest for January 27th 2012 was 739; Open Interest increased +50 to 10,277. -- Weather: 6 – 10 Day Forecast: Normal to Above Temps. Normal to Above Precip -- Outside markets. Crude Oil down -67c @ $98.89; Gold off -$7.60 @ $1724.60; Silver off 50c @ $33.28; US $ index up 49 pts @ 79.51

LaSalle Street News Cash Markets -- CIF Corn steady off 4. Jan. +76 to +??, Feb. +67 to +72, Mar. +63 to +65, A/M +61 to +62, J/J +61 to +62, Aug. +?? to +?? , OND +57 to +60

Please do not enter orders via email or a voicemail message. We cannot be responsible for orders left in this manner. Orders must be entered via direct communication (by telephone conversation or in-person contact) with a representative of our firm and confirmed accordingly at the time of order entry. Alternative investment products may entail leveraging, commodity trading and other speculative investment practices which involve substantial risk of loss. Alternative investment products may have no secondary or a limited secondary market for an investor’s interest. Alternative investment performance can be volatile. PAST RESULTS ARE NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. This message contains information which may be confidential or privileged and is intended only for the individual or entity named above. It is prohibited for anyone else to disclose, copy, distribute or use the contents of this message. This material and any views expressed herein are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an endorsement or inducement to invest. If you received this message in error, please notify us immediately via return email

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Monday Morning Soybean Update Mon, 30 Jan 2012 09:21:49 -0600 http://research.linngroup.com/lgp/research/44499.html http://research.linngroup.com/lgp/research/44499.html Soybean prices retreated slightly on Friday closing 3 3/4 cents lower. For the week beans gained 12 cents. Overall improvements in South American has kept beans from keeping pace with Corn. In contrast to beans Corn closed the week 34 cents higher than the previous week. After a sharp rally to start the week, an improving weather scenario took away some of the bullish enthusiasm from the market. Volume on Friday was extremely light. Soybeans traded only 101,330, Meal 42,334 and Oil traded 66,052. Funds were sellers of an estimated net 3,500 Soybeans, 1,800 Oil and 1,300 Meal.

Opening Call, [...]

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Soybean prices retreated slightly on Friday closing 3 3/4 cents lower. For the week beans gained 12 cents. Overall improvements in South American has kept beans from keeping pace with Corn. In contrast to beans Corn closed the week 34 cents higher than the previous week. After a sharp rally to start the week, an improving weather scenario took away some of the bullish enthusiasm from the market. Volume on Friday was extremely light. Soybeans traded only 101,330, Meal 42,334 and Oil traded 66,052. Funds were sellers of an estimated net 3,500 Soybeans, 1,800 Oil and 1,300 Meal.

Opening Call, lower. The Soy complex was weaker overnight on a strong $USD and good rain prospects for dry areas in Argentina and Southern Brazil. Speculation continues that Russia will impose export duties on grain exports. The National Institute for Agriculture Technology is estimating the 2011/12 bean crop to be 43 to 47 mmt. Weekly commitment of traders report shows index funds reduced their length in Soybeans by 2,753 contracts to 123,691, Meal was off 130 to 18,992 and Oil was increased 1,138 to long 90,292. Managed funds increased their length in Beans by 11,836 to long 45,384, Meal short 8,977 down 4946 and Oil shorts were increased by 5,230 to short 12,759. The market is expected to be pressured early by outside market influences. Currently the $USD is trading 45 lower, equities weaker and crude oil off 99 cents.

Opening Call: Beans 13-15 lower, Oil .30 to .40 lower and meal 3.00 to 4.00 lower

Top News -- A poll of grain analysts peg the average Corn price estimate on December 31 2012 at $5.47 vs. $6.47 on December 31 2011, meanwhile Soybean avg price at end of 2012 is seen at $11.47 down from Dec 31, 2011 - $11.99, acc. to reuters poll -- CFTC Commitment of Traders data on Friday showed small Managed Money (large discretionary fund) selling in the grains (wheat/corn) through 1/24, but small buying in soybeans and soy meal -- EPA reports December US biodiesel production at 160 million gallons, a 43% mo/mo gain from Nov, and more than a four-fold increase from the year ago Dec -- Calendar year 2011 biodiesel production seen above 1.1 bil gal, acc. to the EPA calculations, easily satisfying the 800 mil gal mandate; the requirement rises to 1 bil gal this year (2012) -- US EPA report says southeast Asian palm oil based biofuel does not meet standards for saving greenhouse gas emissions, however a public comment period for the report will last until Feb 27th -- According to traders familiar with Lanworth Latin American production estimates on Friday, said the firm pegs Argentina's soybeans at 44.5 mln mt and that compares to the Buenos Aires Grain exchange estimate yesterday at 46.2 mln mt. Lanworth's Brazil's production was said to be 68.5 mln mt -- Traders on Friday also said Lanworth Latin American production estimate pegs Argentina's corn crop at 20.8 mln mt that compares to the Buenos Aires Grain exchange estimate of 22.0 mlnt; Lanworth's Brazil corn production was said to be at 60.1 mln mt -- The Feb 13th launch of OTC Ag swap futures has been delayed due to lack of approval from the CFTC, acc. to CMEGroup. -- Pending Tender: Cash merchandisers say the state run trading corp of Bangladesh is seeking 4,000 mt of Soyoil in a Jan 19th tender deadline -- Dalian Sept. Soybean futures were up + 13 @ 4326 yuan/mt., Sept. Soymeal was up + 23 @ 2,955 yuan/mt. -- Dalian Sept. Palm Oil futures were up + 18 @ 8,048 yuan/mt., Sept. Soyoil was up + 42 @ 9,068 yuan/mt. -- Liffe Feb. Rapeseed futures were up + 1.50 @ 466.50 euros/mt. -- In Malaysia Apr. Palm Oil futures traded down - 53 @ 3,082 ringgit/mt., range on th day was 3,126 to 3,079. -- In Malaysia No trades in Crude Palm Oil cash markets went out bid 3,090 offered @ 3,110 ringgit. -- CBOT Soybean Volume & Open Interest for January 27th 2012 was 101,330; Open Interest decreased -156 to 478,780. -- CBOT Soybean Oil Volume & Open Interest for January 27th 2012 was 66,052; Open Interest increased +992 to 313,516. -- CBOT Soybean Meal Volume & Open Interest for January 27th 2012 was 42,334; Open Interest decreased -402 to 202,351. -- Weather: 6 – 10 Day Forecast: Normal to Above Temps. Normal to Above Precip -- Outside markets. Crude Oil down -67c @ $98.89; Gold off -$7.60 @ $1724.60; Silver off 50c @ $33.28; US $ index up 49 pts @ 79.51

LaSalle Street News Cash Markets -- CIF Soybeans steady. Jan. +76 to +??, FH Feb. +73 to +??, Feb. +71 to +??, Mar. +66 to +70, A/M +57 to +61, June +56 to +60, July +56 to +??, Aug. +?? to +??

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Corn Commentary - February Option Expiration Fri, 27 Jan 2012 09:26:58 -0600 http://research.linngroup.com/lgp/research/44457.html http://research.linngroup.com/lgp/research/44457.html The corn market closed around unchanged in the old crop and higher in the new crop as the early rally finally ran into some selling that continued throughout the day and both markets closed off the highs. The March contract opened strong, about 11 higher, but it couldn’t hold the grains and sold off trading down closed to unchanged before stabilizing around the 640 level. The corn market traded in a relatively tight trading range after the initial volatility, but that changed in the final 45 minutes. The March contract traded down lower on the day around [...]

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The corn market closed around unchanged in the old crop and higher in the new crop as the early rally finally ran into some selling that continued throughout the day and both markets closed off the highs. The March contract opened strong, about 11 higher, but it couldn’t hold the grains and sold off trading down closed to unchanged before stabilizing around the 640 level. The corn market traded in a relatively tight trading range after the initial volatility, but that changed in the final 45 minutes. The March contract traded down lower on the day around 12 40, but quickly rebounded back to about 5 higher, but in the final 5 minutes, corn sold off again and closed around unchanged. There wasn’t any new news stories, but we are finally starting to see some farmer selling as the March contract is trying to get back up to the psychological 6.50 level. The US$ also added pressure to the grains by rallying off the lows from early in the session and when there isn’t any new news, traders will watch the outside markets. Weekly export sales were good, so that helped corn early. The corn market has really broken into 2 markets with the old crop and new crop having very different dynamics. The volume was pretty good at 345,000 contracts and funds were small buyers.

Overnight, the corn market closed lower, taking back the losses that happened in the final minutes of trading on Thursday. Both the March and December contract closed up about 4-5 cents near the highs of the session. Today is February option expiration which usually isn’t a big deal, but we do have corn up over 25 cents this week so it may have caused some option players to pay attention today. There is a lot of attention being paid to corn stocks, both here in the US And world, and that talk will only intensify as we get closer to the start of the planting season. Don’t forget that the February starts next week and this is the month when the insurance levels are set. Last year, we have a corn price of 6.01 and it will take a big rally this year to get anywhere near that price level. With that price, many farmers felt it was a no brainer to plant corn, so it will be interesting if that happens this year if we don’t have such a high insurance price level. The corn market will be called higher this morning, in line with the closes overnight, but the outside markets are a little more negative than when grains closed, so that could add some pressure.

GLOBEX Overnight Contract Last Net Change High Low Volume ZCH12 639^2 4^6 640^6 631^0 17166 ZCK12 644^6 4^6 646^0 636^4 3235 ZCN12 649^0 5^2 650^0 640^4 5874 ZCU12 592^6 4^0 592^6 587^6 442

LaSalle Street News Early Opening Calls: 3-5 higher

LaSalle Street News Top News -- Cash sources say STX and CHS sold a total of 110,000 mt US Corn to S Korea's Nongyhup Feed on Friday. Earlier traders said Nonghyup Feed was seeking up to 250,000 mt of corn for May-June delivery in a snap tender announced Friday. -- Buenos Aires Grain Exchange updated corn/soy production estimates, seeing 11/12 corn production at 22.0 mln mt and soybeans at 46.2 mmt -- Buenos Aires Grain Exchange report estimates Soybean planting this week at 96.3% complete up from last week's 91.7% complete. They say 18.16 mln ha have been planted out of the 18.85 mln ha expected to be planted -- Buenos Aires Grain Exchange weekly report pegs Sunseed harvest at 21% complete, with 382,463 ha collected out of the 1.84 mln ha expected to be harvested -- Buenos Aires Grain Exchange weekly report pegs Corn at 95.0% complete (3.514 mln ha have been planted so far) up from last week's 91.4% complete. Total Corn acreage is seen at 3.70 mln ha. -- In Brazil Rio Grande do Sul agency, Emater, puts soybean crop estimate at 8 mln mt down 750,000 mt from their prior estimate -- Emater agency in Brazil puts Rio Grande do Sul corn crop estimate at 3 mln mt down 300,000 mt from their prior estimate -- USDA announced Thursday that begin Feb 13th at 11:00 am CT, it'll kick off releasing a new 10 yr ag projection report from the chief economist office. Projections cover crop and livestock commodities, agricultural trade and aggregate indicators, such as farm income and food prices through 2021. USDA says the long term projections will not represent a USDA forecast, but a conditional, long-run scenario based on specific assumptions about farm policy, weather, the economy and international developments.

-- Yesterday's USDA Export Sales report, new 11/12 export sales in corn amounted to 35.2 million bushels, and 34.6 million bushels were shipped this week -- As reported yesterday 413 million bushels of corn export sales are open for the 11/12 crop year, and 638 mil bu have been shipped so far this year; this compares to 461 mil bu open and 645 mil bu shipped this week last year, acc. to USDA -- Biobutanol pioneer Gevo is suing Dupont for patent infringement on joint venture "Butamax" -- Pending Tender: A gov't official in Japan announced a new SBS tender that wraps up on Feb 1st, they're seeking 100,000 mt of feed Wheat and 200,000 mt of feed Barley for shipment by May 31 -- Pending Tender: In a Feb 2nd deadline Jordan is seeking 100,000 mt of feed Barley from optional origins. -- Dalian commodity markets on holiday -- Liffe Mar. Corn futures were down - .75 @ 204.50 euros/mt. -- CBOT Corn Volume & Open Interest for January 26th 2012 was 345,597; Open interest increased +10,006 to 1,221,606. -- CBOT Ethanol Volume & Open Interest for January 26th 2012 was 867; Open Interest increased +58 to 10,227. -- Outside markets. Crude Oil up 44c @ $100.14; Gold off -$4.10 @ $1722.60 ; Silver off -20c @ $33.54; US $ index off -22 pts @ 79.29

LaSalle Street News Cash Markets Bean Barge Corn Barge SRW Barge HRW Track Ill Riv Frt Jan +71/77 H +88/95 H +73/77 H 450 Feb +68/72 H +72/76 H +75/80 H +110/115 H 415 Mch +65/70 H +64/66 +75/82 H +107/115 H 400

Truck Beans Corn Wheat Meal Hi-pro Oil Chicago +0 H +15 H +0 H
Toledo -18 H +6 H +23 H
Dec ILL +8 H +28 H -12 H +50 H

TREND:

Corn market ran into cash selling today. Basis levels sold off slightly from early highs. Bothered that spreads are not responding to the cash strength. Typical local trade in the spreads is concerned about the index fund roll of long positions out of delivery month but that trade is 3 to 4 weeks away? Got close to the 6.50 targets and actually exceeded them if cash taken into consideration. Look for support at 6.25 to 6.18. Will see more active user buying there. That trade has backed off as basis and futures have gain all week.

Please do not enter orders via email or a voicemail message. We cannot be responsible for orders left in this manner. Orders must be entered via direct communication (by telephone conversation or in-person contact) with a representative of our firm and confirmed accordingly at the time of order entry. Alternative investment products may entail leveraging, commodity trading and other speculative investment practices which involve substantial risk of loss. Alternative investment products may have no secondary or a limited secondary market for an investor’s interest. Alternative investment performance can be volatile. PAST RESULTS ARE NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. This message contains information which may be confidential or privileged and is intended only for the individual or entity named above. It is prohibited for anyone else to disclose, copy, distribute or use the contents of this message. This material and any views expressed herein are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an endorsement or inducement to invest. If you received this message in error, please notify us immediately via return email

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Friday Morning Soybean Update Fri, 27 Jan 2012 09:07:10 -0600 http://research.linngroup.com/lgp/research/44454.html http://research.linngroup.com/lgp/research/44454.html Soybean Prices closed 9 1/4 cents higher on Thursday despite reports of adequate rainfall in South American growing areas. Export sales were slightly below expectations. 466 mt of old crop and 5 mt of new crop. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange lowered their bean production estimates to 46.2 mmt compared to their Jan estimate of 50.5 mmt and last year at 49.2. Volume on Thursday was low. Soybeans traded only 125,678, Meal 52,846 and Oil 75,254. Funds were net buyers of an estimated 5,000 Soybeans, 3,000 Oil and 1,500 Meal.

Opening call mixed. Drier weather is expected today [...]

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Soybean Prices closed 9 1/4 cents higher on Thursday despite reports of adequate rainfall in South American growing areas. Export sales were slightly below expectations. 466 mt of old crop and 5 mt of new crop. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange lowered their bean production estimates to 46.2 mmt compared to their Jan estimate of 50.5 mmt and last year at 49.2. Volume on Thursday was low. Soybeans traded only 125,678, Meal 52,846 and Oil 75,254. Funds were net buyers of an estimated 5,000 Soybeans, 3,000 Oil and 1,500 Meal.

Opening call mixed. Drier weather is expected today through the Weekend in Argentina followed by a significant rain event. Forecasts for significant rains Wednesday and Thursday of .50 to 2.00 are expected. Harvest has begun in some areas of Brazil however wet conditions there are slowing the harvest progress there. Demand for Soybeans has waned somewhat yesterday the USDA reported YTD sales at 956 mil bu vs. 1.372 last year. This is 30% below last year and the USDA is forecasting a 15% drop. Overnight markets are supportive. $USD is trading 22 lower, Crude .40 higher and equities slightly lower.

Opening Call Soybeans 1-2 hither, Meal .50 to $1.00 lower, Oil .5 to .10 lower.

Top News -- Cash traders say next week Vietnamese feed makers will return to the market looking for up to 300,000 mt of Latam soymeal for the March-April delivery period. And could also be looking for up to 150k mt of Aussie feed wheat -- Cash traders say 180,000 mt of Brazil origin soymeal was purchased by Thai feed mills this week for delivery between July and Sept -- Data from India's farm ministry shows as of Friday oilseed plantings fell to 8.43 mln ha from the previous period's 9.31 mln ha -- Buenos Aires Grain Exchange updated corn/soy production estimates, seeing 11/12 corn production at 22.0 mln mt and soybeans at 46.2 mmt -- Buenos Aires Grain Exchange report estimates Soybean planting this week at 96.3% complete up from last week's 91.7% complete. They say 18.16 mln ha have been planted out of the 18.85 mln ha expected to be planted -- Buenos Aires Grain Exchange weekly report pegs Sunseed harvest at 21% complete, with 382,463 ha collected out of the 1.84 mln ha expected to be harvested -- Buenos Aires Grain Exchange weekly report pegs Corn at 95.0% complete (3.514 mln ha have been planted so far) up from last week's 91.4% complete. Total Corn acreage is seen at 3.70 mln ha. -- In Brazil Rio Grande do Sul agency, Emater, puts soybean crop estimate at 8 mln mt down 750,000 mt from their prior estimate -- Emater agency in Brazil puts Rio Grande do Sul corn crop estimate at 3 mln mt down 300,000 mt from their prior estimate -- USDA announced Thursday that begin Feb 13th at 11:00 am CT, it'll kick off releasing a new 10 yr ag projection report from the chief economist office. Projections cover crop and livestock commodities, agricultural trade and aggregate indicators, such as farm income and food prices through 2021. USDA says the long term projections will not represent a USDA forecast, but a conditional, long-run scenario based on specific assumptions about farm policy, weather, the economy and international developments. -- As reported in yesteday's USDA Export Sales report, new 11/12 export sales in soybeans amounted to 17.1 million bushels, and 43.5 million bushels were shipped this week -- As reported in yesteday 289 million bushels of soybean export sales are open for the 11/12 crop year, and 667 mil bu have been shipped so far this year; this compares to 462 mln bu open and 910 mln bu shipped this week last year, acc. to USDA -- Pending Tender: Cash merchandisers say the state run trading corp of Bangladesh is seeking 4,000 mt of Soyoil in a Jan 19th tender deadline -- Dalian commodity markets on holiday -- In Malaysia Apr. Palm Oil futures were up + 4 @ 3,135 ringgit/mt., range on the day was 3,146 to 3,123 -- In Malaysia Crude Palm Oil cash markets had no trades bid 3,130 offered 3,150 ringgit. -- In Malaysia Feb. delivery of Palm Olein was quoted @ 1,066.25 ringgit/mt., Feb. Palm Oil was quoted offered @ 1,050.00 ringgit/mt. -- CBOT Soybean Volume & Open Interest for January 26th 2012 was 125,678; Open Interest increased 1,552 to 478,966. -- CBOT Soybean Oil Volume & Open Interest for January 26th 2012 was 75,254; Open Interest decreased -3,560 to 312,530. -- CBOT Soybean Meal Volume & Open Interest for January 26th 2012 was 52,846; Open Interest increased +357 to 202,538. -- Outside markets. Crude Oil up 44c @ $100.14; Gold off -$4.10 @ $1722.60 ; Silver off -20c @ $33.54; US $ index off -22 pts @ 79.29

Cash Markets Bean Barge Corn Barge SRW Barge HRW Track Ill Riv Frt Jan +71/77 H +88/95 H +73/77 H 450 Feb +68/72 H +72/76 H +75/80 H +110/115 H 415 Mch +65/70 H +64/66 +75/82 H +107/115 H 400

Truck Beans Corn Wheat Meal Hi-pro Oil Chicago +0 H +15 H +0 H
Toledo -18 H +6 H +23 H
Dec ILL +8 H +28 H -12 H +50 H

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